40/70 Benchmark

If that's wxbell, then I'd chop the southern edge of that...

I still think we will...mid atl will probably get one event that provides the bulk of the seasonal allotment.

Agree on everything. I think March is decent. And calling for extreme anonalies months in advance is tough...I hit in February 2018, but its a gamble...you have to be very confident.

Thanks....I thinnk...? Lol

See, the big events are what I enjoy tracking...when I know there is like an 8" ceiling, it really detracts from the overall experience of tracking for me. The allure of the unknown relative to potential is what drives my fullfillment at least as much as the sensible and visiable appeal of the event itself. There is nothing that I hate more than blogging about complex events with very limited potential, such as mixed precip events like this last one...so much work figuring out and communicating the progression, timing and extent of change over for the zones and so little anticipation of potential.

Def. a few storms during which that may not have been a bad moderarion strategy...hmm

KUs compensate for a great deal of seasonal ills for me.

It sucks, but I'd trade a few 4" snowfalls in mid winter for the big dog. I'm pretty consistent about that...

I'd rather a 19" storm followed by weeks of warmth, then several smaller ones amid consistent cold and weeks of crust. That's just me.

Yes. Very fair post. I missed the RNA last year, but nailed it this season.

If we get hardly anymore snow, then that will def. put a dent in my outlook, but I'm happy with my effort. Its been warmer than I had expected, but point me in the direction of the individual that explicitly called for +7 departures from 12-20 through 2-8...tough to predict that magnitude of anomaly at 3 months lead. I did explicitly state that mid winter would blow beginning just before the holidays, and that winter's return would be contingent upon the arctic and Atlantic because the PAC would remain hostile. Arctic and Atlantic haven't helped, so we continue to bake and boring.

I'll bet more seasons than you think have a large porportion of seasonal snowfall within a relatively condensed window of time when you average 40" of snow....Dec 2007, March 2018...hell, even the epic 2015. Diff. is its been very warm, but I think we need to let this play out.

It is what it is...all snow is counted towards the seasonal total. Its been subpar in the aggregate, but this winter has not been in the same league as 2002 and 2012 for me.

I def. don't consider you as positive...cut from the pickles, HubbDave cloth of perpetually waiting for the other shoe to drop.

My 35.5" is close to normal ..maybe a hair below.

Got down to 10.4

I don't think anyone bought anything at day 6. It was discussion on a weather forum.

I haven't looked at it yet, but getting closer to my 2-17 to 3-2 window...hopefully we get good one before the Sox start stealing signs in April.

And this.

This.

Long range guidance has been crying wolf all season on a good pattern, so I wouldn't view that as a death knell. Don't get me wrong...I'm not trying to be an a$$ like last season and make guarantees.....maybe it will be worse than forecast...its certainly possible. But I feel like something will work out.

Same. I'm not calling for anything epic. Maybe another 30" between now and the end of the season....which is like slightly above normal. This was always the risk during the second half, though if we didn't get blocking because RNA was a slam dunk IMO. I explicitly mentioned this in my write up.

I'm satisfied all things considered....its wintry, which is a victory this season.

I was pleased with the forecast. Thanks for the photo @wxmanmitch A hair too heavy and too far south on the snow..not perfect. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/02/verification-thursday-friday-snowice.html

Probably after Feb 20th.