40/70 Benchmark

We have had seasons with similar QBO progressions that went gangbusters. And the fact that we had a SSW is a sign that it wasn't the QBO imo. The main reason that I didn't forecast a SSW was the QBO...oops.

It's difficult, and everyone will always have misses, but I'm 3/5...not bad imo. All we can do is keep trying to improve...never will be 100% success rate.

That is what I missed this season.....I was all over the meager, 1969 like MEI, but I never thought the blocking would be a no-show. I think the SSW really messed that up. I also should have hit the meager MEI/RNA angle a la 1969 harder than I did....I ended up factoring it in, especially with the call for December, but I ultimately went with a mean of the analog years later in the season, which entailed a PNA becoming prevalent. It would have taken balls to go all out 1969, and I tried to play it safe. The SSW I just missed....probably should have known better with the cited Noive Scandinavian blocking. I think we really need to work on forecasting where SSW will be focused, after seeing how they can manifest as deconstructive interference to blocking in the event that they augment a hostile intraseasonal MJO signal.

That is the problem this season....the EPO just means we will have a cold supply. But we need either a PNA or an NAO, or else we get this season....granted they could have been snowier than they have, but those are the breaks. 2005 and 2015 had the PNA ridging....1969 had the NAO blocking. This season is what we risk when you have neither. 2008 is what happens when you have neither and luck out. This season happens when you have neither and do not luck out.

Its semantics. What he is essentially telling you as that the it will be cold before and after it rains...and you may steal a couple of inches of snow and sleet as the cold vacates near the onset. Rinse/repeat. We are resigned to this for the rest of the season. I said the same thing, more or less. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/yet-another-bundle-of-energy-trundles.html Our only shot for a big ticket is to have something cut off in the right spot once the wave lengths shorten later in March and into April, which is always a possibility every season, but never a probability.

FEB 23 Sunday's Rains and What Went Wrong in Winter 2018-2019 Yet another bundle of energy trundles up into the mid latitudes well to out west and through the great lakes this weekend, rinse and repeat. This promises to be an even warmer evolution from what we witnessed on Wednesday night, as the antecedent airmass will not be as cold, thus will put up less resistance to the the southwesterly flow aloft eradicating it. Energy will continue to focus to your west, thus limiting snowfall until either: 1) A ridge of high pressure develops over the west coast, causing the energy to dig southward. 2) High latitude blocking materializes in the vicinity of greenland and the Davis straight, which would force the energy south, as well. A very cold antecedent airmass can mitigate this somewhat, and fore a redevelopment to the east, near the coast. This is what took place on Wednesday night. However since the airmass in place over the area this weekend is not very cold, the low in the mid levels is not transferring to the coast until it is past our latitude. Thus the ski areas are saved. Sound familiar? Perhaps locales to the north of the Mass pike in our region will see a few flakes near the onset. Regional Evolution Note that as the precipitation begins later tonight and early Sunday morning, temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere are already approaching the freezing point, which greatly limits any potential accumulations to primarily north of the Mass/New Hampshire border, which will be quite light at that. The precipitation only runs in advance of the mid level warmth by a very slim margin. Ice should not be much of an issue since the low level cold will not be as impressive of as tenacious as Wednesday night. On Thursday when the First Call was made, it appeared as though there could be some slight accumulations north of the Mass pike. First Call, issued 11pm Thursday. However it now appears as though most accumulation will be relegated to central and northern New England. Final Call: At this point, it is entirely fair to question whether some of the energy that has been ejected into the west all season long will ever begin making to the east coast to produce a coastal system. More of the Same Ahead In a complete reversal from this fall, the short answer from Eastern Mass Weather is "no". While it is possible that there may yet be significant snowfalls for the area, which climo dictates that there will be, we still see no signs of either significant east coast ridging, or north atlantic blocking. Here is the latest European ensemble suite. It is noted that while some semblance of a PNA ridge out west attempts to develop, it remains both fleeing and insufficient to prevent jet energy from consolidating and digging too far to the west. While the European suite is not infallible, and has in fact led us astray many times this season, there exists no "smoking gun" or impetus for change. One of the most ineffective el nino events on record is waning, and there are no signs that the polar stratosphere will warm. What went "wrong" will be discussed more extensively in this spring's outlooks verification analysis, however we believe that the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that took place early this season was quite different from the one that led to last season's record March snows. And it ultimately worked to enhance factors inimical to high latitude blocking this season, and act as a source of deconstructive interference for mechanisms that would have assisted in the development of blocking otherwise. Eastern Mass Weather not only failed to foresee the development of a sudden stratospheric warming this season, but it was also poorly diagnosed once it became obvious that one would occur. It was this, in conjunction with an el nino that never really manifested itself into the tropical forcing, that proved fatal to the success of the winter outlook. While we correctly diagnosed the meager ability of the el nino to impart an influence on the tropical forcing regime and hemispheric pattern, as evidenced by the recognition of the paltry MEI and inclusion of the 1969 analog, we interpreted this as affirmation that the event would remain weak, and thus favorable for increased blocking and southern New England snows. However instead of asserting itself as weak events typically do, it never asserted itself at all, thus there was no impetus for a change from the residual la nina forcing from 2018. We believe that this also took place in 1969, on the heels of a cool-neutral ENSO winter, however intense blocking proved instrumental in the historic February that evolved across the area. It is believed that the recovery of the polar vortex in the wake of the SSW that took place on New Year's day proved fatal to the development of any blocking as the second half of the season evolved. And since the SSW was centered on the other side of the globe, and not over the north atlantic, it only served to enhance the residual la nina like intraseasonal MJO signal, which also proved inimical to the development of blocking. In Summary: 1) El Nino peak ONI was well forecast, however the implications of the meager MEI that was correctly deemed as analogous to 1969 was poorly diagnosed as proof that el nino would remain weak. It was non existent, thus the residual la nina intraseasonal MJO signal was enhanced. We believe that this was intimately connected to the poorly forecast and poorly diagnosed SSW. 2) Eastern Mass Weather did recognize the November Scandinavian blocking as a precursor to a season with a great proclivity for poleward heat flux/transfer...another parallel to 1969. We simply interpreted this as a BIG indicator for blocking. However this may have worked out TOO well. A SSW was NOT expected, but one did occur near the onset of the New Year. First of all, this probably served to shorten the duration of the favorable early December period, as the period preceding SSW events is usually hostile too blocking. Additionally, once it materialized, the problem was that unlike last season, this SSW was not focused over the north atlantic, but rather the other side of the globe. Thus it did NOT promote NAO blocking, but instead amplified the hostile MJO, which due to no show el nino, was mired in la nina like phases like 1969. This also set up the recovery of the PV, which in conjunction with la nina like MJO worked to deconstructively interfere with second half blocking typical of weak modoki el nino seasons. It was a very flawed outlook that still provided plenty of instructional value, thus it will benefit future outlooks. Unfortunately, that if of little solace to southern New England snow lovers this season.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52077-march-disco/

FEB 23 Sunday's Rains and What Went Wrong in Winter 2018-2019 Yet another bundle of energy trundles up into the mid latitudes well to out west and through the great lakes this weekend, rinse and repeat. This promises to be an even warmer evolution from what we witnessed on Wednesday night, as the antecedent airmass will not be as cold, thus will put up less resistance to the the southwesterly flow aloft eradicating it. Energy will continue to focus to your west, thus limiting snowfall until either: 1) A ridge of high pressure develops over the west coast, causing the energy to dig southward. 2) High latitude blocking materializes in the vicinity of greenland and the Davis straight, which would force the energy south, as well. A very cold antecedent airmass can mitigate this somewhat, and fore a redevelopment to the east, near the coast. This is what took place on Wednesday night. However since the airmass in place over the area this weekend is not very cold, the low in the mid levels is not transferring to the coast until it is past our latitude. Thus the ski areas are saved. Sound familiar? Perhaps locales to the north of the Mass pike in our region will see a few flakes near the onset. Regional Evolution Note that as the precipitation begins later tonight and early Sunday morning, temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere are already approaching the freezing point, which greatly limits any potential accumulations to primarily north of the Mass/New Hampshire border, which will be quite light at that. The precipitation only runs in advance of the mid level warmth by a very slim margin. Ice should not be much of an issue since the low level cold will not be as impressive of as tenacious as Wednesday night. On Thursday when the First Call was made, it appeared as though there could be some slight accumulations north of the Mass pike. First Call, issued 11pm Thursday. However it now appears as though most accumulation will be relegated to central and northern New England. Final Call: At this point, it is entirely fair to question whether some of the energy that has been ejected into the west all season long will ever begin making to the east coast to produce a coastal system. More of the Same Ahead In a complete reversal from this fall, the short answer from Eastern Mass Weather is "no". While it is possible that there may yet be significant snowfalls for the area, which climo dictates that there will be, we still see no signs of either significant east coast ridging, or north atlantic blocking. Here is the latest European ensemble suite. It is noted that while some semblance of a PNA ridge out west attempts to develop, it remains both fleeing and insufficient to prevent jet energy from consolidating and digging too far to the west. While the European suite is not infallible, and has in fact led us astray many times this season, there exists no "smoking gun" or impetus for change. One of the most ineffective el nino events on record is waning, and there are no signs that the polar stratosphere will warm. What went "wrong" will be discussed more extensively in this spring's outlooks verification analysis, however we believe that the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that took place early this season was quite different from the one that led to last season's record March snows. And it ultimately worked to enhance factors inimical to high latitude blocking this season, and act as a source of deconstructive interference for mechanisms that would have assisted in the development of blocking otherwise. Eastern Mass Weather not only failed to foresee the development of a sudden stratospheric warming this season, but it was also poorly diagnosed once it became obvious that one would occur. It was this, in conjunction with an el nino that never really manifested itself into the tropical forcing, that proved fatal to the success of the winter outlook. While we correctly diagnosed the meager ability of the el nino to impart an influence on the tropical forcing regime and hemispheric pattern, as evidenced by the recognition of the paltry MEI and inclusion of the 1969 analog, we interpreted this as affirmation that the event would remain weak, and thus favorable for increased blocking and southern New England snows. However instead of asserting itself as weak events typically do, it never asserted itself at all, thus there was no impetus for a change from the residual la nina forcing from 2018. We believe that this also took place in 1969, on the heels of a cool-neutral ENSO winter, however intense blocking proved instrumental in the historic February that evolved across the area. It is believed that the recovery of the polar vortex in the wake of the SSW that took place on New Year's day proved fatal to the development of any blocking as the second half of the season evolved. And since the SSW was centered on the other side of the globe, and not over the north atlantic, it only served to enhance the residual la nina like intraseasonal MJO signal, which also proved inimical to the development of blocking. In Summary: 1) El Nino peak ONI was well forecast, however the implications of the meager MEI that was correctly deemed as analogous to 1969 was poorly diagnosed as proof that el nino would remain weak. It was non existent, thus the residual la nina intraseasonal MJO signal was enhanced. We believe that this was intimately connected to the poorly forecast and poorly diagnosed SSW. 2) Eastern Mass Weather did recognize the November Scandinavian blocking as a precursor to a season with a great proclivity for poleward heat flux/transfer...another parallel to 1969. We simply interpreted this as a BIG indicator for blocking. However this may have worked out TOO well. A SSW was NOT expected, but one did occur near the onset of the New Year. First of all, this probably served to shorten the duration of the favorable early December period, as the period preceding SSW events is usually hostile too blocking. Additionally, once it materialized, the problem was that unlike last season, this SSW was not focused over the north atlantic, but rather the other side of the globe. Thus it did NOT promote NAO blocking, but instead amplified the hostile MJO, which due to no show el nino, was mired in la nina like phases like 1969. This also set up the recovery of the PV, which in conjunction with la nina like MJO worked to deconstructively interfere with second half blocking typical of weak modoki el nino seasons. It was a very flawed outlook that still provided plenty of instructional value, thus it will benefit future outlooks. Unfortunately, that if of little solace to southern New England snow lovers this season.

I had a Davis mounted on the roof....still always seemed low. I just feel like its fraud reading from home stations. Of course, mine was in Wilminton, too.....the wind armpit of the country. Near woods, too. Here in Methuen...I didn't bother;.....its all on the ground.

The whole board is obsessed with Steve's dogs....they are a hit.

I did...when you have the time, his posts are usually good.

Problem is they enter the US near Butte, MT.

Home weather stations are always low.

Yea, it looks like more of the same to me. I'm out.

Its a weather forum...I get it. But it should have its own thread by now, and keep it in there.

Could someone please start a wind threat thread? I mean..its two days out. We shouldn't have to wade through pages and pages of whether the highest gust will be 55 or 65mph in the pattern thread.

Well, maybe we can have a trash barrel watch issued....get them all in while you can, or suffer the consequences of having Tip's gradient sweep them away.

Yea...2015 had the breaks needed to a avail of potential, and this year didn't.

NNE actually does better without neg NAO, I think..

Perfect example of why you need to place the synoptic trangressions of past seasons in the rear view memory once you glean any lessons you can from them. They bias your perception moving forward...that is the challange...fine line between mindfulness of a lesson learned, and a misperception born of past experiences. Harkens back to my sports analogy....lets past defeats inform what you can do differently, but you also have to distinguish between what you can control and what you can't...too much focus on the latter at the expense of the former can have a degrimental impact for many seasons to come. No matter how well you play, you are never going to win every period, every down, inning or quarter..likewise, no synoptic evolution is always going to deliver the desired outcome.

At the end of the day, we still end up with same crap solution we have had all year... cold dump west, primary into lakes, rain-mix. Its like groundhog day....million and one ways to arrive at the same mundane, yeast infection of a solution.

Jesus...radical run-to-run variability.......there is just some impenetrable wall at 500mb just prevents energy from getting to the east coast this season.

PV much more involved this run....

Day 7 looks interesting on the EURO...lets see what this is cooking...