40/70 Benchmark

Some thoughts on my end....not too dissimilar from the prevailing thoughts expressed here. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html

I agree about this becoming a more modoki event...just blogging about that now, actually. Of course, a modoki la nina is the inverse Hadley cell configuration of el nino modoki....bad news bears for the east. Great for the west...specially NW.

I'm excited for this season's outlook. My process will be a little bit different this season, as I am going to supply links to background information throughout the finished product, so that folks can actually read the damn thing. The previous format was mind numbing, and I appreciate that many of you pointed that out. @Ginx snewx had a great suggestion to link the basic background information, which I am implementing in a series of addendums detailing major atmospheric drivers. Addendum one is ENSO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/winter-outlook-2020-2021-addendum-1.html I am really starting to hone in my thoughts early this season and will have more season specific information out tonight.

I always radiate well....some 250-350' "hills" all around me, and I'm snuggled in a little 150'+ valley.

I think region 1.2 warming is another bad sign for the east should that continue.

Hit 29.7 IMBY....growing season cancel. One of the earliest freezes that I can recall...

32.4 this morning...just missed a freeze. Impressive Probably the coldest that it will get all of January 2021.

Euro was good with intensity for Laura...it was a bit weak with Sally.

Not hearing much about the UK, which has been dead-nuts on this season....just about the EURO, which took Laura into Houston and Sally into west of New Orleans. Here is the most likely outcome. Not to mention that its more congruent with climo, which favors large phases further NE, towards the maritimes.

Your weenie self-respect.

Yes...the mea track of NE canes does not run through Bermuda. Exactly.

We dodge!

I'd give the effort for Sally an A. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/hurricane-sally-verification.html

I told a stormchaser on facebook that if a cat 3 landfalls in NE, I'll chase with him wearing a dress and high heels. I stand by that.

Intensity didn't change for Final Call, but track shifted somewhat east. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/hurricane-sallys-approach-final-call.html

Been that way more often than not over the course of the past decade.

Right.....most disparate with snowfall, though....2005 wasn't that cold, but near normal.

Last winter was nothing like 2004-2005 for the northeast in terms of snowfall.

Agree. This weak la nina doesn't look as good for the ne as many have, though. Agree with a lot of what has been said in here, unfortunately.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/sally-to-threaten-beleaguered-n-gulf.html

I'm still on the weak train for now.

Oh yea......boring period for sure.

My main issues with 2007-2008 is the la nina intensity and QBO, which I have seen you discuss. Not a terrible analog, though.

Look like avg precip north of the pike, if we want to split hairs at several months lead. :LOL:

Megalopolis system, December 1981 event, Blizz of April '82 and the March 30 1984 event stand out in my mind....