Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    72,327

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Really seemed to have trouble collecting his thoughts in that video...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO...
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That to me implies that you even with the N PAC ridging positioned well, you still need an NAO. I don't like the odds of that. I may be able to get away with it...but most won't.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can buy that fluctuating between neutral and -1SD is better than stagnating at -2SD.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, an NAO that fluctuates between "your porked" and "your f*cked" like last season is no bueno.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't view this post as good news.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewx....do you have any stats to support that the QBO trend is as important as the state? Not doubting it, but just wondering.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your analogs are like mine...feast or famine snowfall around this area. I would take 2007-2008 in a heartbeat. Sign me up....like 90" here with a steep gradient to the south. I doubt it will be as active as that season, as NNE through Montreal and Quebec had like 5' of snowpack all winter.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fight him
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Both-
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It wasn't a "block", per se....but we did time some NAO assist very well for the 1/11 blizzard. Not sure about latter January. @Ginx snewx can tell you all about transient NAO assist haha He loves it.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we may see alot of that this fall....just a hunch.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    @raindancewx What are your thoughts on this research? +QBO in cool ENSO seasons favoring more N PAC ridging....
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks more and more like the path to a very good winter may be though the NPAC....interesting perspective in relation to the QBO shared in the mid atl forum. I really like griteater's stuff.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow....GREAT stuff. Food for thought, and it makes sense in that we use the QBO as a predictor for the polar fields, however, I have aways known the +QBO to favor less blocking (+NAO/AO). But, if it were to favor more N PAC blocking during la nina seasons, then that could change things. Only thing with 2010-2011 is that we also had some NAO assist. Interesting... The question I have is why is the dataset limited to la nina seasons following el nino seasons?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with that.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never, ever would have guessed....lol
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, unless something changes, not a good look for you guys....even our better years from that composite still sucked for you. But hey....its not my final call, and the way my last two outlooks have done, it will be good new for you guys if it does end up being my final call.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You should be in a better spot than most of us in SNE.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We will need some luck as far as the timing of the highs etc, but it can be done.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Negative correlation with October...positive with Novie. Nothing earth shatteringly strong..
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    While the hindsight composite could reflect that, it doesn't mean we can't get a good stretch....especially early. Also keep in mind that the dry stretch haas to end at some point.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not so preliminary thoughts....but looong was from anything definitive. I offer up composites as coalesce my thoughts throughout the fall. Not at all a forecast. This is evolving quickly IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html
×
×
  • Create New...