40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, I'm selling, too, at this point.
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Fair enough....hopefully we get more mass flux with the increased solar irradiance and approach of spring. Always bowling ball season, too.
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I agree... SWFE remain plausible.
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Yea, if I were you, I wouldn't be losing it either. But I'm beyond that...I just want out. Not asking for a biggie....just an outtie. Please end the season and stop the cold rain-cj shuffle. Just hit reset button next fall and try again.
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That is the truth, though....its why we heard "best look all winter"...which has now morphed into more "events"....AKA more of the same. The difference was PNA ...which is doing its best NAO lke vanishing act.
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Rine, repeat....same crap. Nothing better, nothing worse Any system that doesn't cut is paltry bc all of the energy is west.
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Yea, it will be another scotter jackpot before the next cutter.
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Careful...use of the word lottery would imply the implication of a nasty four letter term that begins with "l"...you'll get jumped. Lol
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Oh, more 2-5" front enders? Sure...
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I agree. Don't get the optimism...nothing has changed.
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I never cancelled last year. Was all over the epic March even during the fall.
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Funny...it was in the upper 20s late last night and early this morning under cloudy skies, so I took a walk on the deck hoping to at least delude myself amid that smokey aroma that is normally a harbinger of snow and a staple of a competent winter. However even then, it smelled like rain. Nice-
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Agree....I just don't see it. Looks the same as it ever has to me.
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You're more hopeful than I am....there is a switch.
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Just rain 34.7
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Euro actually gives me at least an inch of snow on the front end of this.
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I get that, and you are right, but its just easier to get big events during blocked patterns/seasons. That's all. Just as it is with track...more is left to chance, but lack of blocking is not prohibitive.
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I'll be up...will have a look
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Yea...I have been thinking about what I can do to mitigate the Tip effect. I like the educational part for those that have the time and interest, but I need to come up with something more tailored for public consumption.
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TBH, there is always luck involved...even in the hits. I lucked out in 2015 hitting the snowfall and missing the NAO. It evens out.
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Nothing like this year, aside from the low snowfall.
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The analogy doesn't make any sense because outlooks are not a 50/50 proposition with the level of detail that I provide. Even in the other one that I "missed"...I nailed the mid atl blizzard.
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@raindancewx I still don't totally buy into your methodolgy, but you obviously did something right this season. Good job overall. Look forward to your thoughts next year.
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The real challenge is trying to discern which factors to focus in on....not unlike coming up with a game plan in football imo. Like a puzzle..seasonal forecasting is cool.
