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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oddly enough...my best growth all season was during the little inverted trough garbage on president's day...not the first half, but the second round in the PM. Growth has ben awful this season....that was refreshing.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    These are both points that I deliberated over for a bit....I opted 1-3" here because the NAM is pretty paltry, so the 1" covers me there. I'm confident that I won't break 3". I was going to go 2-4" down there....but I feel like one stray spot will pull a nickel....I don't think that it will be widespread. I just wanted to cover myself in the event that some 15:1 ratios verify since we are so saturated through the column...growth should be good...finally.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is my Final Call...I've seen enough. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/wed-night-thursday-227-228-final-call.html
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think its going to go down like that this time...we may not see a big dog, but I think we are going pull of something decent...at least.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I did, however it wasn't as bad as you think because I didn't really know any better. I remember in March of 1990 or 1991, we got a 10" storm and I thought it was a blizzard.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agreed.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you want to do this, at least quote me correctly. I said 12"+ is "big leagues".....not significant. 6" of snow is certainly significant....moderate is significant.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone is different.....no need to get into this debate. It would be nice to get a bonafide warning event.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    6-12" will always be moderate in my book. 12"+ is the big leagues.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why? The EPS is favoring the closer time frame....that is good if you ask me. Guidance is struggling over which wave to focus on, but I would rather have stronger support for a closer time frame.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't really care about the fact that NCEP hadn't officially designated in and of itself . Once we pass that arbitrary threshold of five consecutive tri monthly ONI readings above +0.5, the period will be considered el nino in hindsight. I think the fact that its been poorly coupled, as evidenced by the weak MEI numbers, is really the point. Agreed.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Day 6?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm confused..
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. No reason to change my first call.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was all over that. I was getting roasted by NYC weenies.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like a Miller B-east vibe...first pattern typical of a weak el nino all season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    00z GFS has moved demonstratively towards a phase in la la land....that is very close to a nuke-
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    1986 and 1976 are deceiving, though around this area....much bigger season just inland from Boston in 1986, and just north in 1976....I mean, the northern suburbs had nearly 100" in '76-'77.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even my Ambient on the ground recorded a 35mph peak gust today, so we must have hit like 60mph. KLWN 48MPH Peak KBED 53MPH
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    So I'm not sure why the gradient situation should matter as much it it doesn't phase...maybe it can't dig enough...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    True. I'm mobile...does the euro fully phase at 12z?
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I don't understand is how we have ended up with 17 phased cutters this season, if the speed of the flow is so prohibitive...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    We take late blooms.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, if that block truly does roll over, you can toss seasonal trends. Not to say we have to see a blizzard, but dismissing that based upon past trends would be a fool's errand.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    But you tossed it when it was a whiff 36 hours ago...
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