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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel as though there has been a pretty consistent consensus.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, if it is active and just slightly mild, northern and interior areas could still clean up....2007-2008 being an extreme example.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, modest warm anomalies aren't too problematic until you get south of NYC...but a furnace blows for everyone to varying degrees.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I offered that up, and Tip refuted it.....feels the ability ENSO to force is compromised all around. I am confident that this la nina is at least somewhat coupled, though.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that is far fetched.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Soon to be hurricane DELTA....poised to explode before threatening NO as a minimal to moderate cane. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/delta-poised-to-become-hurricane-and.html
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, not much really to be gleaned from that...nothing unexpected.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was very negative for August, at -1.25, but the September # is not out yet...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be surprised if January was a good retention month like January 2009...I think I cracked freezing like once in a month. But I would see some decent snows amidst inferior retention.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    AEMATT
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I also think January may be somehwhat salvageable, but we'll see....
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see a late season recovery, but I'm not baking that into the snow totals this go around....small changes in timing can destroy the outlook, as I saw last year. Gotta be careful after two consecutive snowfall forecasts busted too high.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not nightmares....they would be erotic in nature..perhaps even some nocturnal saturation of the column-
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....but not to the tune of 140" in central NH, and 45" in Boston.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....I wonder, though because the most prolific gradient seasons, 2007 and 1970 had very similar drastically negative QBOs. Certainly not a deal breaker, though.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jury is still out with respect to the importance of QBO in my mind....I go both ways on that..a little like the rev's sexuality.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fits with the idea of mid winter suckage. I could see a late season revival, but I don't think I am going to make my forecast dependent upon it. Last season it ruined what was otherwise a good forecast because it came a few weeks too late.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    2007 is an extremely good ENSO analog with respect to structure. Yes, ONI weaker, but MEI is dead-nuts on... like I said, the QBO is iffy (keep your pants on, Jeff).
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Have some gradient
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    21SEP2016 21.2 0.8 24.8-0.1 26.3-0.4 28.5-0.2 26SEP2007 18.4-2.1 23.2-1.7 25.6-1.1 28.0-0.7
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    24SEP2008 21.3 0.8 25.1 0.2 26.4-0.4 28.1-0.6 23SEP2020 19.6-0.8 23.6-1.2 25.7-1.0 28.1-0.5 East to west......I like that region 1.2 is so much colder than 2008, and it cooled back .4C in the latest update, after having warmed.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was negative by Novie and remained weakly negative.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree....3 out of my 7 composite seasons. I think 2008-09 is a good analog, and is maybe the ceiling for this season if the NAO doesn't go to crap.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2008 is a pretty good match with respect to QBO....that is the chink in the 2007 armor, though. Raindance was claiming that direction of QBO trend is as important as state, which I am not so sure about...I asked for evidence, but never got a response.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...and I don't think that is good for the east coast, as it should induce forcing further east with time.
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