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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the clarification.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have three..... 1995-1996 127.5" in Wilmington, 2004-2005 107.5" in Wilmington, and 2014-2015 115.5" in Wilmington.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why it should...its hurricane season. Do we look at 2015 and 2005 any differently in terms of snowfall?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    2/4 of my mixed la nina composite. 1970, 1999, 2007 and 2010. I incorporated 2010 very little for various reasons. 2007 is best.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was being conservative.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    ACE is up to 180....I think @raindancewx said 175 was the breaking point for snowier outcomes in the NE, but since they name every pop up shower today, maybe 170 is a more accurate assessment of this season's activity. Close.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just ripping through 2015 threads....good shit. Maintains winter morale...
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the globe has warmed in 35 years....I think the PDO was predominately positive, too. The arctic was similar.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we are....usually about every 30-40 yrs....
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the forcing will be more representative of an east-based la nina during December, which would imply lift closer to the maritime region, as you suggested...but its funny that Will is referencing the how people would be bridge jumping if a the end to a good pattern was in sight because we will likely see the usual suspects do just that later in December and early January. The VP potential should migrate back to the west as la nina matures, so the favorable change should be temporary.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be surprised of it had staying power. Obviously the risk is heightened this season, but I don't think that a 2011-2012 style wall-to-wall pig was ever the most likely outcome.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Navahut MILFS....grab a clunker and take her to sled dog night.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every post for about the past 3 years.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    The abridged cliff-note version of Tip.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    So we get a perfect track with cold rain and only freeze one nut off. Yay.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    So Canada won't be void of cold....its a balance.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Alaska and October stole our snow in 2011-2012. Mid atl stole it in 2009-2010.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the DM period will be heavily RNA, as many suspect.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very possible. I could def. see January being the better month of the DJ period. I would be surprised if Feb was good, though.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    My only point is that its early, so I would wait for it to play out a bit more before bridge jumping. There is no denying that rat potential is above climo this year...I could easily see it playing out like that.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    If aren't squinting in NSE to imagine a winter landscape in November, its a pretty epic pattern. That is the only saving grace here....we are burning crap climo. Def. need some changes over the course of the next month.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hope you feel better soon, bro....good time to be laid up, wxwise lol Zzzzzzzzzzz
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel as though any help in December well come from the EPO or the arctic, the latter of which looks a bit more dubious at this point. Play it out, though...I tend to not deviate from the forecast seasonal progression because of guidance, unless it becomes overwhelmingly obvious in the medium range.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Halloween was a touch colder here...interesting.
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