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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I think we will. Check my blog out...I think the Euro is erroneously hanging the baroclinic zone too close to the coast in the wake of the Saturday deal, which is likely why its ens mean is further off of the coast. EPS will likely come nw, but I think a compromise is in order. Low will likely end up near the canal on Monday.
  2. Yea...I think I get about 5". Sharp gradient south of me, though.
  3. Its a warning event from near the MA/NH border points north.
  4. First Call for Saturday and Initial Assessment for Monday. Final Call for Saturday and First Call for Monday on Friday night: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/double-snowfall-jeopardy-saturdaymonday.html
  5. Glad I left my map alone. Flurries started about 15 minutes ago....2.5" of crust remains.
  6. I made that map last night. I'm just going to roll with it, though...@#$& it-
  7. A winter like this sucks in real time, but it will pay dividends in future seasons...we need to be humbled and have expectations recalibrated every so often. I know that I needed both.
  8. Looks good. I could stand to shift my map ne a bit from last night, but not even worth it. I'll probaby get 3".
  9. I may just stick with this. Knowing this winter, ne MA will under achieve, anyway...focus on high end of range north, and low end south.
  10. Good job seeing the outcome of a single deterministic solution at day 5.
  11. Not ready to buy something that amped yet.
  12. I'm not promising a blizzard....but take the tenor of this winter and toss it. You need to be objective....this is a look that we haven't seen yet....those heights from AK are trickling down the coast. This is a perfect illustration of the importance of recognizing when to bail on persistence forecasting.
  13. I'm gonna go ahead and call for at least one event of at least 6-12" magnitude.
  14. If it slowed down enough, it may mess with March 6-7, but it would also trend larger.
  15. I feel like I've been in a mini screw zone too...at least relative to latitude. All of the NNE events of course north of me; now starting to note a trend of pike pulverizers..
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