40/70 Benchmark

Never doubt the gulf stream.

As a point of reference.

I think this deal is going to be essentially a now-cast, which is a novelty at this day and age....I'll bet against a juggernaut. I still like something a bit more amped than my first call from Wednesday night. I'll do Final Call this PM....I will increase a bit.

I agree.. always been against the phase. Nice event, but not a nuke.

Maybe I rushed everything a month? lol Even if I save some face on seasonal totals, the outlook was still very flawed in my mind. I wouldn't Judah it.

I've had enough of that.

I think we end up with two 6-12" events for a large portion of the area. No nuke...but two nice events.

This run is a net gain for me in the aggregate.

I know, but the QPF gradient is a crude approximation, and that aligns....just a guess on my part.

I know that, but it still shows where banding set up.

I think it would be more than that with banding.

Saturday actually has a good banding signal from back through ORH county on Saturday.

I could see that...I mentioned earlier, bet against phasing this season. Still should be a good event.

Slight improvement over 12z for Saturday, though.

It should be less amped with Monday, too.

Probably end up a like a 6-12" deal.

Yes, please.

The whole duration thing is overrated IMHO....how often do we really see 1"/hr+ snows protracted over the span of 24 hours, anyway? Occlusion will usually limit it. The real key is to have H85 through H5 close off about over the cape....its about track and timing of developmental lifecycle of mid level lows. Get that right, and I'll show you 2'+ in 12 hours. Just speaking in a theoretical sense...NOT a forecast. What a blocky pattern does is not only buy you that extra 6", but it makes the amplification and/or phasing needed to get those type of systems more likely...not to mentioned preventing too much amplification. The stalling notion may mean the difference between 24" and 30", but its not as a big of a deal as folks think, unless you get off on an extra 12 hours of currier and ives like Kev.

UK looks like the GFS

Not a huge fan of the latitudinal gradient showing up...is this getting kicked east?

I would love to get paste....hopefully I can at least sniff 30.

I look at them when a need a quick update...its gives an idea of trends.

I know what happened....it went south with the second event. Sorry...I looked at cumulative total map

Wxbell snow map.