40/70 Benchmark

Did I say from xmas on? I said the next two weeks.

Sucks to have a boring two-week period encompassing the holidays.

Steve is back with a vengence.

Got it.

I'm not debating this, but I'm not sure how a la nina season being front loaded is illustrative of your point.

Yea, obviously not always....if the deformation is over the area, or the CF makes it further inland, then all bets are off. But I have a sneaky hatred for the really cold events like yesterday for this very reason. First of all, snow will with greater liquid content is more athetically pleasing and has better retention. Secondly, cold events are going to pin the CF well to my southeast and increase odds for OES contribution, which both act to focus LL fronto away from me....and if you also miss mid level fronto, then what's left? Basement totals-

Guidance is much better at resolving the low levels, than mid levels...we know this. Its why guidance often over estimates QPF to the east of the H7 low, and underestimates it to the northwest of it.

I think we can now say with confidence that a 1975-1976 scenario is about the worst possible outcome. You can essentially toss the wretched la nina analogs considering how the first half of December has evolved.

If you are looking for widespread > 12", sure.

John, I know you mentioned that there is a propensity for interior NE MA and SE NH to get into screw zones in the big KU events, and I agree. I have always said that. I think its two things: 1) Low level fronto often focuses near the coast, which increases the chance for subsidence in that area. 2) That phenomenon that you were mentioning with regard to the barrier jet advecting drier air in from Maine on a NNE flow. I know someone like Will will tell me that everywhere gets screwed at one time or another, and that is true....but I do think that there are certain regional meso phenomena that make certain areas more prone than others.

Yesterday was dissapointing, but I saw that coming about 5 days out.

I need a dopamine fix, and am not seeing it.

Right up through the south pole

Would that be west-based?

....And the TX gulf coast had a white xmas in 2004....we can always hope.

Yea, I saw that...I was just talking about the stream interaction at H5.

I think you have a better shot of having a unicorn crawl out of your rear, but we can hope.

Sorry, I made a mistake...I meant 00z was better.

I actually thought there was a little more stream interaction on the 00z, as opposed to the 06z EURO for that next event...

Pretty likely here....only 8" deep in alot of spots and low water content.

+11" 15" on the season...

Wow..that is ominous.

Shortwave attenuating due to crunch between trailing sw digging and running into block.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/1217-major-winter-storm-verification.html My ranges were fine throughout central and eastern SNE, but in the lower half, so I probably should have used 10-16" and 8-12", instead of 12-18" and 10-16" in the northeast and central screw zones. I also didn't expect that primary deformation to maintain as well as did into VT and NH...no one did. It also set up about 35mi N of where I forecast it...which turned 3-6" of fluff forecast for Brian into 3 feet. Final Grade: B+

Helps to explain the science behind what happened with me in march 2018...its all about when you measure it when its falling that intensely.