40/70 Benchmark

I'm talking like an extra inch...like the difference between the 5-9" and 6-10" on my map.

Yea, I have the sleet making it up to like Norwell ish.... Even if you sleet, should be pretty inconsequential.....however best banding maybe north of you.

I think it ends up a bit more amped than some thing, but we'll see...been wrong plenty this season.

34.5/28 off of a high of 44.8 Surprised that its not a bit colder, but that pleases me for selfish reasons...

Don't look.

It was pretty straight forward.

Yea, I didn't really hit on the cf, which is a fetish of mine....but its moving so fast, dnt think its a big deal.

Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/snowy-monday-march-4-final-call.html

I like amped.

I'd say more mid morning...

First Call from early Thursday AM was actually decent.

One of my worst busts...probably only worse one was an event last March. I won't be neglecting to consider H85 inflow anymore. Only area I got right was the cape, but I had precip type issues as the limiting factor, so can't Judah myself a fraud victory, there. D- https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/03/saturday-32-verification.html

I learn more every season....some years, like last year....the gaps in my knowledge don't get exposed, but this year undressed me like a nanna in pickles bedroom. Kind of like snowfall....it evens out.

Will, which product shows the H85 inflow? That is what killed me last event....I need to consider that more moving forward.

+1.5" 36"

Tip is a fast flow sniffing hound....if he says its relaxed, rest assured that it is. That is probably why the big events usually occur near regime changes...if you think about it, gradients are relaxed and mass shifts create enhanced baroclinicity.

I couldn't care less.

I didn't either. Checked out last night.

The EURO had warning amounts to me until 00z last night.

Awful....and remember how it amped it was all along for this coming event.

Right...shame on me for thinking the euro had a clue on a 24 hour forecast, I guess.

Weren't you posting about how you were excited for a pattern for the first time all season not too long ago?

I don't think anyone anyone dismissed the cons, and it was pretty universally considered to be a difficult forecast. I'm not sure what your point is. "Screwed" refers to the fact that it had potential to be better, which was reflected by some of the most skilled guidance at very short lead times. All I mean by screwed. I made a call and it was wrong....simple as that. I understand why some weren't as optimisitc, and they were ultimately right.

That's just it....we have had screw jobs when it doesn't benefit NNE...like today. It has gone both ways. But regardless, this season was forecast poorly by everyone, except raindancewx, and we would have had a much better outcome with blocking. Agreed on that.

@STILL N OF PIKE It sounds nice to tie it up in a nice, neat bow and attribute it to the flow being too progressive (ok) and zonal (no), in then in the same breath mock those attributing the meteorological misfortune to some bad luck. Bit of hypocrisy because what deciding factor do you think we are at the mercy of with no blocking in a progressive flow with an "unmanned firehose".....the answer is luck. People just need a "smoking gun" and an object to project there frustration, so "luck" doesn't cut it, but it doesn't make it less valid.