40/70 Benchmark

GFS is Bob...key is to not have it bleed east in future guidance.

I'll bet on guidance biasing left at this latitude.

I don't expect much more than some heavy rain on the way OTS up here....an Edouard.

Yea, I could def. see cat 1. But not discounting anything stronger...just low confidence on that. I wouldn't go more than cat 1 attm.

I don't think the stakes are that high, as it will be lucky to achieve hurricane status.

Why not Carolinas?

I think Carolinas have best shot. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/tropical-troubles-possible-for-east.html

Its been a great quarter century for the zealots.

The Jan 1978 event is one that nailed Gloucester with OES.

One part of my call that I was happy with was ENSO....I nailed that marginal modoki when most laughed at prospect of el nino...of course, the pattern reload took too long, which sunk the forecast, but that may be connected to the muted atmospheric coupling.

Hope my forecast is better than the last two lol

There is also a recency bias given that the last two vaunted meager warm ENSO events were let downs for the northeast....you need not look back very far to find meek warm ENSO events that were accompanied by mutant snows in the NE.

Well, if you think about it....the argument is that global warming is is having a muting effect on warm ENSO events....my train of thought is why would that not serve to augment cool ENSO events. I get that shorter term stochastic fluctuations are more relevent with regard to storm potential, but that doesn't negate the value of monthly aggregate calculations ...especially at longer, seasonal lead times. And while volatility of the polar fields is paramount with respect to optimizing winter storm potential, I would rather have a static negative node and positive.

Had some pea sized hail about 945am...then another downpour in the PM....nice to break up the monotony of the season.

Looks like either cool neutral of weak la nina incoming....I wouldn't assume a mild winter yet at this point. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/07/la-nina-wach-in-effect-for-winter-2020.html

I did that to undermine the media that is catastrophizing it....that is the tangible impact...nice sunsets. Be safe, all.

8.3

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

Wrote a piece on the potential of an active tropical season amidst the pandemic. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/06/potential-tropical-implications-of.html

89 off a low of 59 here today...hottest portion of the state.

Spiked up to 66 for about 15 minutes around 415 for the Hi, otherwise it was low 60's. Low of 46.4.

Back to 62.2....wind still NE.

63/57 and still cloudy here at the NH border in Methuen.

Verification: https://www.blogger.com/u/1/blog/post/edit/2820149554058213224/3271427891031056834 Final Grade is a D+. Here is the brief version: Abstract Although the 2019-2020 seasonal forecast did have some forecasting victories, such as the development of an el nino, a cold and snowy start to the season in December and the rapid warm up as the holidays approached, it ultimately left a great deal to be desired. The 1969-1970 season was utilized as a primary analog with the notable caveat that not as much seasonal blocking was anticipated in the aggregate. But rather the parallel between the two seasons was made due to the postulation that the winter of 2020 would eventually develop that same proclivity to develop high latitude blocking on the heels of another meager el nino, which the 1969-70 season did. However, this season exhibited that one month that would feature the propagating poleward heat flux necessary to induce significant blocking during the second half of the season, as opposed to the 1969-70 analog, which featured the most stout blocking in January. The very mild middle of the season was expected, but it was even more protracted and warmer than forecast. Couple this with the fact that the crucial development of blocking took several weeks longer to materialize than forecast and what had began as a very promising outlook devolved into our worst yet. And by a wide margin at that. December-March Forecast Review Here is the DM period: What could be gleaned from this is that there would usually be a cold source expected to at least be nearby even in the event that sustained blocking did not materialize, which it did not, until spring. D-M Seasonal Composite December-March Outcome D-M Outcome The details for this past season are as follows Snowfall was under forecast at none of the 15 cities. Snowfall was over forecast at all 15 cities. Snowfall verified at none of the cities. City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” 15.8" +185% New York, NY 20-30" 4.8" +317% Philadelphia, PA 17-27" 0.3" +5,667% Baltimore, MD 15-25” 1.8" +733% Washington, DC 15-25” 0.6" +2,400% Albany, NY 65-75” 49.7" +31% Hartford, CT 50-60” 29.1" +72% Providence, RI 40-50” 13.2" +203% Worcester, MA 70-80” 44.9 +56% Tolland, CT 60-70" 31.4" +91% Methuen, MA 65-75” 44" +48% Hyannis, MA 20-30” 5" +300% Burlington, VT 80-90" 69.6" +15% Portland, ME 70-80” 59.6" +17% Concord, NH 65-75” 46.5" +40% Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 -.91 (DF) +.91 Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 -.57 +.72 ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.6C JFM ONI .52 Modoki Predicted Peak two months early, and .01 too cold. Modoki value +.02 greater than forecast. (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 +.65 +.80 Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 +2.22 +2.22 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 +1.20 +1.37 The mean forecasting error with respect to snowfall was an unfortunate 678.3%, which is by far the worst snowfall outlook dating over six seasons. Final Grade: D+ The mean forecasting error with respect to the previous seasonal snowfall outlooks are as follows: 2018-2019: 90.4% 2017-2018: 13.2% 2016-2017: 35.3% 2015-2016: 71.4% 2014-2015: 10.9% Six season running mean error: 149.9% 24/86 (27.9%) of snowfall outlooks have been under forecast. 46/82 (56%) of snowfall outlooks have been over forecast. 16/82 (20%) of snowfall outlooks have verified within the forecast range. This just in: Forecasting snowfall at very extended leads is difficult.

I wish that I had included you on my spreadsheet because you maybe the one spot I would have nailed. lol Just missed BTV...