40/70 Benchmark

Been a trend all day....that is what I was referring to with my sarcastic reference to rain threat missing sne.

Whoosh..

Sarcasm, but rain is lessening for e NE in some of these latest runs.

Got close to Florida and contracted covid....like everyone else the past few weeks.

12z euro starting to remove the rain threat from SNE lol

Where I disagree with NHC is that I do see a window for intensification on Monday assuming this doesn't bury itself in FL.

People get carried away due to short term intensity variations....Wednesday night, it was going to be a cat 3 at LF because it became a hurricane 12 hours ahead of forecast, regardless of high confidence impending shear. Now, it's going to dissipate because the shear is actually weakening it. This was actually more on FB than anyone here, but people need to learn that a slightly stronger initial intensity does not alter the universe and render a system impervious to the effect of shear. Any guidance showing a period of weakening was tossed because guidance was 10mph low and 10mb high at initialization.....weenie defense mechanisms.

Quote me, too.....main threat is rain for sne.

Congrats, me...

NHC calls for shear for the rest of its life...looks like it abates south of Carolinas to me....unless the shear east of FL follows it north...

Yea, we are on the same page.

Yes, I think that is the Ukie...best solution for us. Probably strong TS here...we'll see. Beats tracking mosquitoes.

No issue with that. Looks about right.

The image clearly shows the system inland well south of us, so how SNE sees much wind is beyond me.

First Call in relation to Hurricane Isaias. Final will be tomorrow night. Looks to brush the Florida coast between West Palm Beach and Melbourne as a minimal hurricane early Sunday, before veering north and perhaps even weakening to a tropical storm. However it should enter a period of intensification on Monday and perhaps strike near Cape Fear, NC approaching the threshold of a category 1/2 hurricane. Threat here in New England is primarily heavy rains, which is not really much of a threat since the region is enduring modest drought conditions. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-threatens-fl-and.html

Not happening until maybe just before LF in the Carolinas if just brushes FL.

It's been steady state all day long....fluctuations. The environment is neutral now, and will degrade tomorrow, then become reasonably favorable on approach to Carolinas.

95-100mph at dawn. If that happens, I'll leave my wife and marry James on the cape.

Wrong.

GFS is Bob...key is to not have it bleed east in future guidance.

I'll bet on guidance biasing left at this latitude.

I don't expect much more than some heavy rain on the way OTS up here....an Edouard.

Yea, I could def. see cat 1. But not discounting anything stronger...just low confidence on that. I wouldn't go more than cat 1 attm.

I don't think the stakes are that high, as it will be lucky to achieve hurricane status.

Why not Carolinas?