40/70 Benchmark

First Call Late Friday/early Saturday: AUG 1 Hurricane Isaias Threatens FL and Carolinas: First Call Precise Track of Isaias Crucial to Intensity Forecast Current Status: Per the 8/1 2am update from the National Hurricane Center, the ill defined eye of Hurricane Isaias was located about 90mi SSE of Nassau in the Bahama islands and is continuing to decelerate towards the NW at 15mph with max sustained winds of 85mph. Obviously the system is headed towards Miami at the moment, and anyone who has not either recently awakened from a coma, or had their head buried in the sand knows that a hurricane is the last thing that the covid stricken state of Florida needs right now. Alas, ask mother nature if she cares. The answer to that rhetorical question is obvious, but real million dollar is question is whether or not Isaias will actually get to Florida. While the general track is very high confidence at this juncture, the precise path is more uncertain and of course, of utmost importance. It often works out that way in meteorology, as its the most difficult to forecast, subtle nuances that end up making all of the difference, and the future track of Isaias is no different. The devil in in the details- Isaias Forecast Track: What we know is that the hurricane is going to turn more towards the north as it approaches the coast, which is a direct result of the energy associated with the system being channeled up the coast between an anomalously deep trough to the west, and a potent west atlantic ridge to the east. 7AM Monday: What we are less confident of is whether or not the system actually makes landfall on the Florida peninsula. This is a very challenging forecast given the timing of the anticipated turn and the concave nature of the coast, which is a dilemma also faced by forecasters with respect to Hurricane Dorian last season. Obviously the stakes are not quite as high because this is not nearly as a powerful of a system, but they are plenty high enough. Here is some of the latest guidance and the trend from our first update approximately 48 hours ago. Wednesday Night guidance (Left) and Friday Night (Right) Clearly, as one would expect, the cone of uncertainty with respect to the various forecasting models has decreased. What is has become clear since Wednesday night is that a path out to sea with no direct impact to the US is very unlikely. Since the odds of Isaias moving over much of Florida, or even making landfall on Florida, have also decreased, a stronger landfall is now more likely to the north. Eastern Mass Weather opined on Wednesday night that landfall in Florida was unlikely, and that the most probable area for landfall would be in North Carolina and our position on that has not changed, nor is it likely to. The European (Right) and British (Left) ensemble suites from Friday corroborate this trend. In summary, both the severity of the impact on the already reeling state of Florida, and the intensity of Isaias as it moves up the coast will be heavily modulated by how much it interacts with the state of Florida. If it moves bodily up the state of Florida, which is increasingly unlikely, impacts up the coast will be greatly reduced due to toll that the increased land interaction will have on the system. If it brushes the coast, or remains offshore of Florida, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather, it will be a stronger system as it approaches the Carolinas, or even perhaps long island. How strong is another challenging question. Isaias Intensity Forecast: Isaias has largely maintained its intensity over the course of the past 24 hours, although fluctuation have been noted, as is usually the case. There is plenty of energy available in the waters around the Bahama islands, in fact, probably even more so than Hurricane Dorian encountered last season. However, we are not observing the explosive intensification that we did with regard to Dorian because the system continues to encounter some wind shear. This is illustrated in the graphic below: The shear is also evident in the current satellite imagery, as outflow is clear somewhat restricted the western semicircle of the storm. Note also in the previous image above the that shear will increase near the Florida coast during the day on Saturday through Sunday, when some weakening of Isaias is likely and it could even be downgraded to a tropical storm at some point. However, the system is likely to encounter a lull in wind shear during the day on Monday, as Hurricane Isaias crosses the very warm waters of the gulf stream and approaches North Carolina. This means that Hurricane Isaias could perhaps be approaching category two intensity when it makes landfall in North Carolina, after weakening and brushing the Florida coast in the vicinity of West Palm Beach or Port St. Lucie. Final Call will be issued Saturday night. First Call: Cape Fear, NC is our First Call target.

I said it would weaken to a TS an remain just offshore, FL before turning N and intensifying back to cat 1 near cat 2 with LF between NC/SC border and Wilmington early Tuesday.

Man, looks like I had this one nailed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-threatens-fl-and.html

Or Monday..agree. I still think track tics east a bit..

What is the favorable pattern for those? I don't understand them well....just know that you get a swath of rain well ahead of the cyclone.

Been a trend all day....that is what I was referring to with my sarcastic reference to rain threat missing sne.

Whoosh..

Sarcasm, but rain is lessening for e NE in some of these latest runs.

Got close to Florida and contracted covid....like everyone else the past few weeks.

12z euro starting to remove the rain threat from SNE lol

Where I disagree with NHC is that I do see a window for intensification on Monday assuming this doesn't bury itself in FL.

People get carried away due to short term intensity variations....Wednesday night, it was going to be a cat 3 at LF because it became a hurricane 12 hours ahead of forecast, regardless of high confidence impending shear. Now, it's going to dissipate because the shear is actually weakening it. This was actually more on FB than anyone here, but people need to learn that a slightly stronger initial intensity does not alter the universe and render a system impervious to the effect of shear. Any guidance showing a period of weakening was tossed because guidance was 10mph low and 10mb high at initialization.....weenie defense mechanisms.

Quote me, too.....main threat is rain for sne.

Congrats, me...

NHC calls for shear for the rest of its life...looks like it abates south of Carolinas to me....unless the shear east of FL follows it north...

Yea, we are on the same page.

Yes, I think that is the Ukie...best solution for us. Probably strong TS here...we'll see. Beats tracking mosquitoes.

No issue with that. Looks about right.

The image clearly shows the system inland well south of us, so how SNE sees much wind is beyond me.

First Call in relation to Hurricane Isaias. Final will be tomorrow night. Looks to brush the Florida coast between West Palm Beach and Melbourne as a minimal hurricane early Sunday, before veering north and perhaps even weakening to a tropical storm. However it should enter a period of intensification on Monday and perhaps strike near Cape Fear, NC approaching the threshold of a category 1/2 hurricane. Threat here in New England is primarily heavy rains, which is not really much of a threat since the region is enduring modest drought conditions. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-threatens-fl-and.html

Not happening until maybe just before LF in the Carolinas if just brushes FL.

It's been steady state all day long....fluctuations. The environment is neutral now, and will degrade tomorrow, then become reasonably favorable on approach to Carolinas.

95-100mph at dawn. If that happens, I'll leave my wife and marry James on the cape.

Wrong.