40/70 Benchmark

They are all retired.

Pending disaster in conjunction with covid, which is worst in cane country. I did a piece on this about a month ago....

Not sure, but not Michael....

Yea, I was wondering what he meant...

Yes, that in conjunction with the longitude that has them tucked into the concave of the coastline.

Yea, that in conjunction with the longitude of FL and GA....agreed.

I think its because FL and GA have the most longitude on the east coast.

Thanks. The time is a challenge with a full-time job, wife and child, but I do my best. I think the fact that I glossed over local impacts is a byproduct of the time constraint. I need to do a better job of managing that, and I'm glad that Kevin called me out on that because it raises my awareness of it. My site is "Eastern Mass Weather", but I do try to cover all of SNE, and this system was memorable throughout W SNE.

I remember. What were the max winds in FL? That was an ill-advised post on my part because I was forecasting the storm to remain east of FL. It was more of a reflection of my bias of underestimating the impact in W SNE.

You are right; I didn't. I'm telling you what I was thinking, which my landfall forecast corroborates. It was clear to me we weren't getting 2-3" of rain here. But I also didn't think that all mention of rain should be literally removed from the forecast.

I do regret not touching upon the sensible impact in SNE more....I tend to focus on landfall area due to time constraints, and it was also apparent it would be NBD in eastern areas. But in hindsight, I think it was a big enough deal in enough of SNE that I should have acknowledged it more.

I made that comment as models were relentlessly trending westward. Obviously rain was not going to be entirely taken out of the equation for SNE, which was the sarcastic inference, however, it was becoming apparent that heavy totals were in question. That is what I was getting at. You replied by posting guidance still printing out 2-3" over most of SNE, which I felt would not verify.

Right.....not sure why it garnered some curious responses. No surprise....

Thanks. Yea, the rain/flooding threat went by the wayside as it became apparent that the system would track well west of us.

I made a tongue-in-cheek remark about how guidance was beginning to remove the rain threat from SNE, as models shifted west a few days before LF and it was met with a great deal of skepticism. Seems warranted in hindsight.

How much rainfall generally across the area? Seemed as though selling on excessive rains for the majority of the area was justified.

Forecast for Hurricane Isaias was very good. Final Call on Saturday night was for landfall near Oak Island, NC on early Tuesday AM with max sustained winds between 75-90MPH. Landfall was at Oak Island, NC with max sustained winds of 85MPH. Only hitch was that it was just BEFORE midnight on Monday night, thus it was not early Tuesday, but rather late Monday evening. Better luck next time.

I think it will fall short.

Final Call Saturday night: AUG 2 Isaias: Final Call Much of the forecast philosophy from Saturday's First Call remains applicable, however, a track slightly further to the west with respect to the second landfall in in the Carolinas seems likely. Although some of this may be negated if the center reforms to the northeast in the vicinity of the mid level low. This slightly further west track would imply a slightly weaker storm, since the storm would have a bit more interaction with the coast of Florida. The system has weakened to a tropical storm, as implied may be the case. However, A period of intensification is still anticipated Sunday into Monday as Isaias approaches the coast. Final Call: First Call issued Yesterday:

First Call Late Friday/early Saturday: AUG 1 Hurricane Isaias Threatens FL and Carolinas: First Call Precise Track of Isaias Crucial to Intensity Forecast Current Status: Per the 8/1 2am update from the National Hurricane Center, the ill defined eye of Hurricane Isaias was located about 90mi SSE of Nassau in the Bahama islands and is continuing to decelerate towards the NW at 15mph with max sustained winds of 85mph. Obviously the system is headed towards Miami at the moment, and anyone who has not either recently awakened from a coma, or had their head buried in the sand knows that a hurricane is the last thing that the covid stricken state of Florida needs right now. Alas, ask mother nature if she cares. The answer to that rhetorical question is obvious, but real million dollar is question is whether or not Isaias will actually get to Florida. While the general track is very high confidence at this juncture, the precise path is more uncertain and of course, of utmost importance. It often works out that way in meteorology, as its the most difficult to forecast, subtle nuances that end up making all of the difference, and the future track of Isaias is no different. The devil in in the details- Isaias Forecast Track: What we know is that the hurricane is going to turn more towards the north as it approaches the coast, which is a direct result of the energy associated with the system being channeled up the coast between an anomalously deep trough to the west, and a potent west atlantic ridge to the east. 7AM Monday: What we are less confident of is whether or not the system actually makes landfall on the Florida peninsula. This is a very challenging forecast given the timing of the anticipated turn and the concave nature of the coast, which is a dilemma also faced by forecasters with respect to Hurricane Dorian last season. Obviously the stakes are not quite as high because this is not nearly as a powerful of a system, but they are plenty high enough. Here is some of the latest guidance and the trend from our first update approximately 48 hours ago. Wednesday Night guidance (Left) and Friday Night (Right) Clearly, as one would expect, the cone of uncertainty with respect to the various forecasting models has decreased. What is has become clear since Wednesday night is that a path out to sea with no direct impact to the US is very unlikely. Since the odds of Isaias moving over much of Florida, or even making landfall on Florida, have also decreased, a stronger landfall is now more likely to the north. Eastern Mass Weather opined on Wednesday night that landfall in Florida was unlikely, and that the most probable area for landfall would be in North Carolina and our position on that has not changed, nor is it likely to. The European (Right) and British (Left) ensemble suites from Friday corroborate this trend. In summary, both the severity of the impact on the already reeling state of Florida, and the intensity of Isaias as it moves up the coast will be heavily modulated by how much it interacts with the state of Florida. If it moves bodily up the state of Florida, which is increasingly unlikely, impacts up the coast will be greatly reduced due to toll that the increased land interaction will have on the system. If it brushes the coast, or remains offshore of Florida, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather, it will be a stronger system as it approaches the Carolinas, or even perhaps long island. How strong is another challenging question. Isaias Intensity Forecast: Isaias has largely maintained its intensity over the course of the past 24 hours, although fluctuation have been noted, as is usually the case. There is plenty of energy available in the waters around the Bahama islands, in fact, probably even more so than Hurricane Dorian encountered last season. However, we are not observing the explosive intensification that we did with regard to Dorian because the system continues to encounter some wind shear. This is illustrated in the graphic below: The shear is also evident in the current satellite imagery, as outflow is clear somewhat restricted the western semicircle of the storm. Note also in the previous image above the that shear will increase near the Florida coast during the day on Saturday through Sunday, when some weakening of Isaias is likely and it could even be downgraded to a tropical storm at some point. However, the system is likely to encounter a lull in wind shear during the day on Monday, as Hurricane Isaias crosses the very warm waters of the gulf stream and approaches North Carolina. This means that Hurricane Isaias could perhaps be approaching category two intensity when it makes landfall in North Carolina, after weakening and brushing the Florida coast in the vicinity of West Palm Beach or Port St. Lucie. Final Call will be issued Saturday night. First Call: Cape Fear, NC is our First Call target.

I said it would weaken to a TS an remain just offshore, FL before turning N and intensifying back to cat 1 near cat 2 with LF between NC/SC border and Wilmington early Tuesday.

Man, looks like I had this one nailed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-threatens-fl-and.html

Or Monday..agree. I still think track tics east a bit..

What is the favorable pattern for those? I don't understand them well....just know that you get a swath of rain well ahead of the cyclone.