40/70 Benchmark

Over such a small area prone to high winds...."who cares" in my book.

Congrats...

I think it will be quiet for another week or so...

1938 wasn't purely tropical to my knowledge.....which is why it retained so much fury in conjunction with the insane forward motion.

Too early...I feel like recent summers have looked ideal in the north atlantic, only to end up having the NAO verify obnoxiously positive come winter. I do not that there is a propensity for a deeply negative NAO winter shortly following solar minimums...even raindance will tell you that.

Counts more than the frauds like Edouard that skirted east..

They are all retired.

Pending disaster in conjunction with covid, which is worst in cane country. I did a piece on this about a month ago....

Not sure, but not Michael....

Yea, I was wondering what he meant...

Yes, that in conjunction with the longitude that has them tucked into the concave of the coastline.

Yea, that in conjunction with the longitude of FL and GA....agreed.

I think its because FL and GA have the most longitude on the east coast.

Thanks. The time is a challenge with a full-time job, wife and child, but I do my best. I think the fact that I glossed over local impacts is a byproduct of the time constraint. I need to do a better job of managing that, and I'm glad that Kevin called me out on that because it raises my awareness of it. My site is "Eastern Mass Weather", but I do try to cover all of SNE, and this system was memorable throughout W SNE.

I remember. What were the max winds in FL? That was an ill-advised post on my part because I was forecasting the storm to remain east of FL. It was more of a reflection of my bias of underestimating the impact in W SNE.

You are right; I didn't. I'm telling you what I was thinking, which my landfall forecast corroborates. It was clear to me we weren't getting 2-3" of rain here. But I also didn't think that all mention of rain should be literally removed from the forecast.

I do regret not touching upon the sensible impact in SNE more....I tend to focus on landfall area due to time constraints, and it was also apparent it would be NBD in eastern areas. But in hindsight, I think it was a big enough deal in enough of SNE that I should have acknowledged it more.

I made that comment as models were relentlessly trending westward. Obviously rain was not going to be entirely taken out of the equation for SNE, which was the sarcastic inference, however, it was becoming apparent that heavy totals were in question. That is what I was getting at. You replied by posting guidance still printing out 2-3" over most of SNE, which I felt would not verify.

Right.....not sure why it garnered some curious responses. No surprise....

Thanks. Yea, the rain/flooding threat went by the wayside as it became apparent that the system would track well west of us.

I made a tongue-in-cheek remark about how guidance was beginning to remove the rain threat from SNE, as models shifted west a few days before LF and it was met with a great deal of skepticism. Seems warranted in hindsight.

How much rainfall generally across the area? Seemed as though selling on excessive rains for the majority of the area was justified.

Forecast for Hurricane Isaias was very good. Final Call on Saturday night was for landfall near Oak Island, NC on early Tuesday AM with max sustained winds between 75-90MPH. Landfall was at Oak Island, NC with max sustained winds of 85MPH. Only hitch was that it was just BEFORE midnight on Monday night, thus it was not early Tuesday, but rather late Monday evening. Better luck next time.

I think it will fall short.

Final Call Saturday night: AUG 2 Isaias: Final Call Much of the forecast philosophy from Saturday's First Call remains applicable, however, a track slightly further to the west with respect to the second landfall in in the Carolinas seems likely. Although some of this may be negated if the center reforms to the northeast in the vicinity of the mid level low. This slightly further west track would imply a slightly weaker storm, since the storm would have a bit more interaction with the coast of Florida. The system has weakened to a tropical storm, as implied may be the case. However, A period of intensification is still anticipated Sunday into Monday as Isaias approaches the coast. Final Call: First Call issued Yesterday: