40/70 Benchmark

Oh, I don't doubt it...that was my first call.

Yea, SW LA is another boring landfall spot...as is the border area where Rita hit. The western Gulf coast has lots of population holes, unlike the eastern side.

Well, that settles it.

Marco was never expected to go "right"....it always looked to kiss hurricane strength and no more. On Friday, I expected a similar fate for Laura, maybe a bit better, but over the weekend it appeared likely that shear would abate. We need to see if that goes according to plan. Knowing this year, it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't, or it did and we still peaked at 105mph.

I can't stand Texas landfalls....most are pretty boring. Especially if hit trends down to the big bend area where Hannah went. Its one giant swamp.

You are exactly right, though....that is the reason you don't go James and forecast a cat 4 or 5 at extended leads...sooooo much has to go "right" ...in a season where not much has, nonetheless...

It still has a lot of housekeeping before its off to the races...cat 4 is def. not a forgone conclusion.

I was pretty conservative on first call because I'm not in the habit or forecasting 160mph gusts and 3 feet of snow at 4 days lead time, but if you read the blog, I implied exactly what you are referring to. You are spot on in that the timing of Laura's evolution is going to leave little time for modulation via internal processes (ERC), which may be the coast's only hope under these circumstances. Texas would likely have been better off had Laura blown up near the leewards and 1) Began ERC 2) Been a mature, coupled system upon traversing of Hispaniola and Cuba, which would have rendered it more prone to disruption.

I get that they are just anomalies, and not cool readings in the absolute sense.....but I would think that if the ambient sea surface is very warm, then that would accentuate the ability of the sliver of cooler anomalies to exert forcing. Not my area of expertise, though, so I'll defer on that. I'm not a math and physics guy at all.

160mph gusts at Galveston island....yikes. Boivar peninsula 116mph....they were just leveled by Harvey 3 years ago.

Thanks, man. You may very well be right about the track....just a first call. Final will be tomorrow night. One thing I have been working on over the past year or two is not being so defensive with respect to forecasting and embracing mistakes as a vehicle for refinement. It tends to make your thoughts much more readable, too. I have also been trying to tone down the syntax and length to make it more appealing to read and less cumbersome.

First Call for Laura, which will absorb Marco IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/laura-steals-show-first-call.html

John, I know you are big on the warming planet muting warm ENSO to a degree, but what are your thoughts on cooler ENSO events being augmented?

You can book a weak la nina this season IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/weak-la-nina-peak-virtual-certainty.html

I'm especially skeptical it maintains that much intensity that far north, and somewhat skeptical it makes it that far west. We''ll see.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/double-trouble-in-gulf-of-mexico-next.html

08-09 didn't really have NAO blocking...it was more EPO, like 07-08, but it was less hostile in the atlantic than 07-08.

All you can do is play the odds....two favorable (weak) ENSO events in a row sucked, so I wouldn't bet on a third.

Weak la nina is the second most favorable ENSO state.

Over such a small area prone to high winds...."who cares" in my book.

Congrats...

I think it will be quiet for another week or so...

1938 wasn't purely tropical to my knowledge.....which is why it retained so much fury in conjunction with the insane forward motion.

Too early...I feel like recent summers have looked ideal in the north atlantic, only to end up having the NAO verify obnoxiously positive come winter. I do not that there is a propensity for a deeply negative NAO winter shortly following solar minimums...even raindance will tell you that.

Counts more than the frauds like Edouard that skirted east..