40/70 Benchmark

I would be interested in seeing stats RE the correlations, but intuitively speaking, our warm direction is usually form the SW and its difficult to remain exceedingly dry for very long with a predominate flow from that direction considering the broiling GOM.

JAS 2022 -1.00 JAS 2024 -0.64 Decent difference in tri monthly RONI....however, I agree on the moderate peak.

I agree. All I meant was I won't even look at this unless it develops and I am reasonably confident of a US threat.....so I guess you see me blog on it, its bad news for the US.

I would favor the GFS, potential track nothstanding...but I am balls deep in winter at this point.

Eh....personally, I defenitely would rather not have at there in November because that is late enough where sometimes it sticks....but doesn't have to.

Doesn't bother me...I have seen more "if only this were winter" patterns in October end up as "this winter blows" seasons.

I wouldn't be suprised to a nasty hybrid deal in a week or two....October 2021 has that big storm here while I was overseas.

I would look for another 1995-1996, 2002-2003, 2009-2010 type of season around the turn of the decade.

When @Jebmanhas a pessimistic rant, its time to find a new hobby.

His screen name tells you all you need to know....walking agenda.

Especially for you....its more of an issue for me being closer to the ocean, but I also have a better shot at alienating my family and risking my marriage to track a unicorn.

Awesome forecast, Dick pic

I think its a blend...sure, some maybe CC, but I think more of that is a byproduct of the crap Pacific and just some poor luck, too.

Yep. Great point...an identical regime this season would evolve even more unfavorably for NE winter enthusiasts if the polar domain also behvaves similarly. However, it was very hostile that year and I suspect we will have a bit more of a blocking signature in the mean this year.

What really complicates matters is undersanding WHY the metrics are disjointed and how that will manifest itself into the hemispheric manifold on a seasonal scale. The latter is where I failed last season. The lower =colder rationalization is a reductive and archic way of conceptualizing it (not directed at you...theoretical).

I agree, just still grappling with the timing a bit....

Yea, I think a season like that is the ceiling....decent snowfall with low retention.

No question its going to be warm....the issue is whether or not it will be prohibitively warm again.

Sure, and sometimes it doesn't, which is probably why October isn't highly correlated to winter. BTW, I would gladly take a repeat of 2016, anyway....esstentially normal snowfall around here.

The largest weakness I see with certain seasonal forecasters time and time again is this "all or nothing" black vs white thought process. I can't emphsize enough how important nuanced thinking is.

Yea, we have been though this. You do you...1999 is a much better fit from a polar perspective. Different analogs have different stengths and weaknesses.

1999-2000 is one of the better analogs. I think this pattern would have been warmer relative to normal for the northeast during the winter due to wavelengths. Thankfully, October doesn't have much of a coorelation to winter.

I think the much more palpable impact for us is the greater dichotomy between the favorable and unfavorable regimes.....we have seen that over the course of the past decade and that should continue. The warmer oceans are going to allow us to avail of ample moisture when we get stuck in one of these favorable regimes, like 2014-2015 and to a lesser extent March 2018, but we no longer have the margin for error to get away with a hostile mutltidecadal Pacific cycle, as we have seen the past several years. I expect the time around the turn of the decade to be another bonanza, but hopefully we can at least get back to respectability in the mean time.