40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, the mid month deal looks like a frontal passage.
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That event, as modeled there, has left a significant amount on the table, too.....by like....half.
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I'm going to make an educated guess that should the 16-17 fail, which seems more likely to fail than not, January 20ish ends this drought period.
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Quoting and expanding on it is so much more fruitful lol
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I would not be the least bit surprised if the end of this lull period is marked by a pretty hellacious storm.
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Pretty spectacular phasing over the maritimes on the long range GFS at like day 11 (lol)....too bad that PV node is so lethargic in joining the fray. Little less energy out west may expedite that.
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IDK, I think his hairline checked out at the first sign of puberty
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Just washed mine yesterday....was thinking the same.
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They are just tools, you shouldn't base a forecast entirely off them, or we wouldn't even need mets.
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Don't you see the better pattern!?!??!
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Wolfie growls, ice drinks....the sun comes up, it hits 40...rinse, repeat-
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At least you had something to soak up the suds lol
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Looks like the booze is downwelling into the esophagus and propagating into the bloodstream. Sudden Alcholic Warming
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It totally can over the last 10 days or so. I have been arguing against Jan 2011, but a respectable snowfall total would not shock me in the least.
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He's probably laying low until it snows, so he can bump the 15 quotes that he has lined up on stand by lol
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1/10, unless you live in Vegas or LA. Oh, Jan is still fair game...didn't mean to imply I was punting it. Just saying....seems like time table is moving back a bit, though.
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What makes me nervous about my call for Feb is that not only are we having the SSW, but we are due for meg NAO time.....on the other hand, what I weighted in favoring a PV recovery is the +QBO. Seems as though it has peaked early, though, like it did in 2011....so we will need to watch that. Didn't help latter portion of that season, but there wasn't a SSW, either.
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LC is bullish on Feb....be interesting to see how it pans out....Tom and I in one camp, LC and DT in the other. Someone will have to "deal with it" lol Gonna need the SSW to save Feb.
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Open auditions for the AMWX melt HOF...
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I salute you.
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Just need to downwell into the delorean and propegate back to 1978.
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SSTs down, sun angle up....lol
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The problem right now is not a se ridge.
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No problem. Hopefully that GEFS solution is more accurate, but my guess is the end result will be more tempered.
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Nah, mid December was noted in the outlook for the original favorable period, which worked out. But due to some bad luck with the NAO block being a bit displaced to the south, it didn't last as long as I had thought. For January, I implied a relatively quiet stretch, with near normal to slightly above normal attempts, and mixed events. I actually mentioned in the write up that I felt as though there would be a propensity for the NAO blocking to be biased east, so pretty close.
