40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Agree.
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Yea, you can get porked in a neg NAO....no promises, but it helps.
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Right...I never implied that it WILL NOT SNOW in the mid atl during a la nina season in which the NAO is + in the means. What I implied was that if you want a "good winter", you will need at least "some" blocking in a la nina season. All of the la nina seasons that had none sucked down there....but yes, there was still some snow....hard not to be above 35* latitude, or whatever...
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In other news, SNE's next blizzard will probably not have the impact of the Feb 1978 blizzard...lol
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2010-2011...
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For all of the crap that we give the 80's, which were paltry in terms of snowfall, only one season from that decade managed to not average at least one neg NAO month in the means......1988-89, which was a strong la nina. I wonder if Tip's, expanded Hadley cell and attendant uber fast flow is responsible for the rarity of the neg NAO over the past several years...
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So you believe that the PAC modulates the Atl....hard to substantiate or dispute, but logically it makes sense, since the former is much larger and upstream.
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With the exception of March 2018, you have to go back to March 2013 to find a DM winter month that averaged a negative NAO in the means.....think about that. Food for thought for some of the "All Regression All of the Time" crew....
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Where did I say that you did? It was an honest question...not sarcastic. While the 2017-2018 season averaged +NAO in the means, March was exceptionally blocky. There was a potent SSW in February...
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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020
40/70 Benchmark replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Really seemed to have trouble collecting his thoughts in that video... -
List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO...
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That to me implies that you even with the N PAC ridging positioned well, you still need an NAO. I don't like the odds of that. I may be able to get away with it...but most won't.
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I can buy that fluctuating between neutral and -1SD is better than stagnating at -2SD.
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Yea, an NAO that fluctuates between "your porked" and "your f*cked" like last season is no bueno.
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I don't view this post as good news.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@raindancewx....do you have any stats to support that the QBO trend is as important as the state? Not doubting it, but just wondering. -
2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Your analogs are like mine...feast or famine snowfall around this area. I would take 2007-2008 in a heartbeat. Sign me up....like 90" here with a steep gradient to the south. I doubt it will be as active as that season, as NNE through Montreal and Quebec had like 5' of snowpack all winter. -
Fight him
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Both-
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It wasn't a "block", per se....but we did time some NAO assist very well for the 1/11 blizzard. Not sure about latter January. @Ginx snewx can tell you all about transient NAO assist haha He loves it.
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I think we may see alot of that this fall....just a hunch.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@raindancewx What are your thoughts on this research? +QBO in cool ENSO seasons favoring more N PAC ridging.... -
Looks more and more like the path to a very good winter may be though the NPAC....interesting perspective in relation to the QBO shared in the mid atl forum. I really like griteater's stuff.
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Wow....GREAT stuff. Food for thought, and it makes sense in that we use the QBO as a predictor for the polar fields, however, I have aways known the +QBO to favor less blocking (+NAO/AO). But, if it were to favor more N PAC blocking during la nina seasons, then that could change things. Only thing with 2010-2011 is that we also had some NAO assist. Interesting... The question I have is why is the dataset limited to la nina seasons following el nino seasons?
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Agree with that.
