40/70 Benchmark

Yes he is. Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

Its too warm. No way I get like 2" of snow with that antecdent airmass in early Feb.

And.....?

Not a good run for E MA, but I think its too warm with that antecedent airmass.

Bit closer to ACK and weaker.

Tuesday night-

I'm surprised that you of all people took the bait lol

Huh?

He breaks out into hives anytime the heights at Miami exceed 580dm.

I agree, John...those 36-48 hr depictions never work out. The bulk of this impact should be within a 24 hr period, and anything beyond is nuisance variety.

That may take bit longer and flip your outtie to an innie, first.

Looks like 3" at home and 4" at work, here in Chelsea.

Man, the OP GEM would send Scooter to the old S Weymouth Naval station to sprawl across the runway lol....brutal gradient near Boston.

EPS is a bit too tucked for my liking... GEFS are perfect. GEPS are a bit too far east... I like where much of the region sits, right now....even a 75% comp in favor of the EPS would be near optimal.

Just my early guess...really shouldn't even be discussing aspects like that yet, so take it FWIW.

I suspect that at least from the ORH hills points east, this may not be as prone to mesoscale screw jobs as some other events due to that deep layer E fetch....you aren't so dependent on low level fronto near the coast, and mid level deformation as the primary vehicles for ascent. I can envision a scenario where everyone that isn't rain is naked from ORH down to Kev points east, and then anyone who is not under the death band and/or in a valley is in a great deal of pain points west. Higher stakes over WNE and NYS IMO.

Yea, I haven't even looked.

06z EPS looked a bit more tucked than 00z.

Its a great synoptic look....I'm just being unnecessarily neurotic at this range.

I mean near the coast...not interior. S of I90 AND INSIDE RT 128....

I should be bunned several times over for even going there,at this stage.....hit me.

Frustrating for the coast because that was a cold period....this is a couple of weeks later, which is significant around peak climo, so coast would far better if that came to pass.

I think that may have been an event when Methuen was noticeably better than Wilmington...more on par with Ayer.

I am scared, yes....had a lot of bad luck with snow for about 3 seasons now. On a grander scale, which is what is important at this range, all systems go for a storm.