40/70 Benchmark
-
Posts
71,941 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
-
That is what I am afraid of...
-
The quarantine 15...though for squirrels, its 15oz, hopefully lol
-
Anyone care to elaborate on this? I don't know much about the impact of that, so its a real wild card...
-
I know what he means, though....I gotta admit that I hate seeing the NAO really dip in October. More often than not, it does't lock in for several months.
-
Even here, its much more difficult. La nina/+NAO couplet is always a dangerous way to live south of the NH border.
-
Gotcha....by "good", I meant above normal....just miscommunication.
-
LOL Every BY for themselves. Sorry about that...didn't mean to tell you your own climo. That is obnoxious...I was just tossing out a la nina with some blocking. It wasn't a disaster for you guys, though, right?
-
Yea, I have no issues with that theory. I just don't have the background to empirically validate it...
-
I'm not expert on mid atl climo, so all I can do is point out a la nina with blocking. By all means, feel free to enlighten me with details. Odds are always against down there in la nina, but its just more palatable with a neg NAO.
-
Agree.
-
Yea, you can get porked in a neg NAO....no promises, but it helps.
-
Right...I never implied that it WILL NOT SNOW in the mid atl during a la nina season in which the NAO is + in the means. What I implied was that if you want a "good winter", you will need at least "some" blocking in a la nina season. All of the la nina seasons that had none sucked down there....but yes, there was still some snow....hard not to be above 35* latitude, or whatever...
-
In other news, SNE's next blizzard will probably not have the impact of the Feb 1978 blizzard...lol
-
2010-2011...
-
For all of the crap that we give the 80's, which were paltry in terms of snowfall, only one season from that decade managed to not average at least one neg NAO month in the means......1988-89, which was a strong la nina. I wonder if Tip's, expanded Hadley cell and attendant uber fast flow is responsible for the rarity of the neg NAO over the past several years...
-
So you believe that the PAC modulates the Atl....hard to substantiate or dispute, but logically it makes sense, since the former is much larger and upstream.
-
With the exception of March 2018, you have to go back to March 2013 to find a DM winter month that averaged a negative NAO in the means.....think about that. Food for thought for some of the "All Regression All of the Time" crew....
-
Where did I say that you did? It was an honest question...not sarcastic. While the 2017-2018 season averaged +NAO in the means, March was exceptionally blocky. There was a potent SSW in February...
-
SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020
40/70 Benchmark replied to Bostonseminole's topic in New England
Really seemed to have trouble collecting his thoughts in that video... -
List me all of the la Nina winters that the mid atl did well with a +NAO...
-
That to me implies that you even with the N PAC ridging positioned well, you still need an NAO. I don't like the odds of that. I may be able to get away with it...but most won't.
-
I can buy that fluctuating between neutral and -1SD is better than stagnating at -2SD.
-
Yea, an NAO that fluctuates between "your porked" and "your f*cked" like last season is no bueno.
-
I don't view this post as good news.
-
2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@raindancewx....do you have any stats to support that the QBO trend is as important as the state? Not doubting it, but just wondering.
