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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was my best outlook of the six that I have issued. I emphasized how extreme each of those periods would be, and even implied a white xmas (xmas AM storm). Its been all down hill from there-
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar seasonal progression.....quick start, then we stagnate in January....abysmal February, then a happy ending. Probably not as extreme with the Feb warmth, or the happy ending.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow.....you actually crush my area with snow. 127% of normal? I never would have guessed that. Good luck. Not so secret about your analogs anymore haha. What is the rationale behind the inclusion of 2012-2013 and last season?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. The gulf coast would probably be better off it maintained intensity and remained compact.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its flat terrain out there, too...not like Cuba.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will be interesting to see how much DELTA going coo coo for coco puffs can spike the ACE. Should remain a major for several days.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have always thought 1995-96 behaved more like a modest modoki el nino. Granted, 25 years ago, I know... I would love if this one acted more like a traditional modest el nino lol
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you are deep interior. I was nowhere near average.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I meant was you didn't necessarily endorse the idea that cool ENSO will be generally accentuated in a world of warmer waters.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel pretty good about this season not being as bad as last year.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I agree. This la nina is coupled.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be modestly surprised if this la nina registered as an official moderate event per ONI, and would be stunned if it ended up strong...I guess we will see.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel as though there has been a pretty consistent consensus.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, if it is active and just slightly mild, northern and interior areas could still clean up....2007-2008 being an extreme example.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, modest warm anomalies aren't too problematic until you get south of NYC...but a furnace blows for everyone to varying degrees.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I offered that up, and Tip refuted it.....feels the ability ENSO to force is compromised all around. I am confident that this la nina is at least somewhat coupled, though.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that is far fetched.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Soon to be hurricane DELTA....poised to explode before threatening NO as a minimal to moderate cane. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/delta-poised-to-become-hurricane-and.html
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, not much really to be gleaned from that...nothing unexpected.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was very negative for August, at -1.25, but the September # is not out yet...
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be surprised if January was a good retention month like January 2009...I think I cracked freezing like once in a month. But I would see some decent snows amidst inferior retention.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    AEMATT
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I also think January may be somehwhat salvageable, but we'll see....
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see a late season recovery, but I'm not baking that into the snow totals this go around....small changes in timing can destroy the outlook, as I saw last year. Gotta be careful after two consecutive snowfall forecasts busted too high.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not nightmares....they would be erotic in nature..perhaps even some nocturnal saturation of the column-
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