40/70 Benchmark

That is the most favorable climo time of the year for big snows....like Feb 5-10. Obviously for cold, its 10 days to 2 weeks earlier.

Let me clarify....if you want to argue that the US opened too soon, I'm not sure that I would disagree. But I think closing the economy again for over a month would do more harm than good. I get it...my own mother is vulnerable, but I can't justify risking a depression when she can just remain quarantined, which she essentially has done. Not to mention the psychological impact on people....especially children, since the whole educational institution is such a catalyst for social development.

Of course it is. And I am not trying to speak in absolutes. I have learned my lesson on that. Obviously odds of a ratter increase when you see something like that in November, but I still feel okay. If its still there as we approach xmas, then I'll be very concerned.

So sorry, guys.

Yes.

Having intervals like that this season is expected. I just don't think it sits there for 4 months like 2012.

Lot's of people aren't okay with ruining the economy due to a .01% mortality rate. The vulnerable should quarantine.

Please excuse my ignorance, but what is FIL?

Some of us don't have nearly as far to regress as others.

Gotcha.

That storm remains the largest sleet event that I have ever seen...not close.

Despite losing climo, I feel like you have more margin for error with respect to scoring in an unfavorable pattern in March due to the changing wavelengths. All it takes is one well placed bowling ball....

That was 2007...and it was NNE and NYS. Areas north of the pike and beyond rt 128 in SNE had about 6-8" of snow and sleet.

He bases his thoughts for the entire winter on the PV, which is a flawed methodology. PV is strong.....yes. No one expects much blocking this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean winter cancel. He also gets too carried away when guidance wanes on PV intensity because it's not the only factor.

His area looks very good given prognostications.

I think the one great storm is more of an el nino phenomenon.

I didn't get that vibe at all. He was forecasting a good January.

I was doing me....you quoted and replied to me. Since he had average seasonal snowfall south of the pike, I assumed he wasn't forecasting a 60" January for N CT again.

You have a very strange obsession with that season. His outlook was not similar to that season at all, except for January being the most wintery month.

I agree. This is why I had higher snowfalls than most for the mid atl.

I am pretty pleased with Isotherm-Tom's outlook..........especially north of the pike. Tough sledding for the higher elevations south of the pike....I will be sure to take pics for them. Glad we don't live there.

Was you primary analog 2007 or 1975?

Great work, as usual. We are largely in agreement, but differ a bit on how we arrive there. We agree that the seasonal PNA will be near neutral or even positive in the mean, but I favor PNA more in the second half. You also favor the most wintry period in January, and I am more December. I would not be surprised if you have the better idea there, as I was torn on whether to favor Dec 15 to Jan 15, but ended up highlighting December, while acknowledging that the favorable pattern could linger into January. Caveat being that you aren't that hostile for SNE in December....we both agree that the mid atl will struggle early. February will be terrible. Agreed. I mentioned some hope for March, but it is low confidence and did not bake in into the snowfall forecast.

Nice three year run of winters that was.