40/70 Benchmark

I think the "wet dream" scenario is that an early season NAO hands off to some PNA assist, as the La nina relents following a mid winter thaw. TONED the #*## down 1995-1996. One major difference being the absence of the southern stream and of course, milder overall.

Hadn't seen that, but makes perfect sense to me. I will also add, that January and February don't exactly look like train wrecks in the depiction...NAO not withstanding. Cold source appears in tact, though I am needing to twist my head to angles that I shouldn't approaching 40. My guess is gradient city for JF. Maybe SNE and even perhaps N mid atl biased Dec, before CNE/NNE wears the crown for JF.

Novie actually has a weak positive correlation to wintertime NAO....so any bimonthly ON correlation to winter likely cancels out-

No. We agree on that, wholeheartedly. I am a big fan of including March in snowfall climo (sorry Kev) at our latitude. Its akin to excluding October from cane climo, which no one does.

What I am willing to say is that a deeply negative NAO October favors at least one month from DM to average a neg NAO, which only increases confidence in what I am already going with. That may not sound like much, but if you consider the past several years, I think its pretty significant. Dating back to March 2013, the only DM month that has managed a neg NAO in the mean is March 2018...which I accurately predicted. I'm pretty confident that I will also accurately predict the first neg NAO winter month since March 2018, this season.

2004-2005 was not a neg NAO winter going by CPC, nor have I ever known it to be one. March 2005 was very negative, but Feb was near neutral and Dec and Januaru were ++. 2002-2003 was pretty neutral...even a hair +. 2012 and 2009 def. work....not sure about '46. I'll take your word for it.

I remember my first season on the boards, I used the crazy blocking during 10/2006 to support my premise for a harsh winter in refute of Chuck back when he was a thing. Needless to say, I lost. lol That was his "This will be the warmest winter on record in the US" outlook year.

I don't have any issues with blocking during December or even into early January...I just wouldn't expect it mid season.

I actually feel as though he DID know that....if you read his blog, he uses subjective language such as "observational" to substantiate his positions....which I interpret as a tacit acknowledgement that its not empirically founded. Either that, or its an admission that he was lazy and didn't check. The weak negative correlation between October NAO and winter NAO is pretty well known...I see it referenced in posts every season. I know raindance mentioned it in his outlook as support for a positive wintertime NAO, since October looks to finish with with a negative NAO in the mean.

Excellent work. I have come to respect you as one of the better posters on these forums. We don't always agree, but the quality of your work is top notch.

He didn't event address that fact it is NEGATIVE, not positive...which is in conflict with his premise that October blocking positively correlates to a re occurrence during boreal winter. He deflected the dialogue towards strength of correlation. My interpretation of him is that he engages in backwards forecasting.....he comes into each season with an agenda and looks for data to support it. The data should guide you to a position.

I don't think it changes much. I think it just increases confidence that it will not be a very cold winter in the east...especially south of 40N. I think it also augments the importance of the polar fields this season. I am not sold on a strong la nina by a long shot, though....frankly, I am surprised that it looks to make moderate considering where we were a month ago.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/verification-of-hurricane-delta.html Forecast for DELTA verified, as it made landfall within the high risk zone and was within the 100-115mph forecast range of intensity. Peak intensity and landfall intensity were very well forecast dating back to Monday, a full five days prior to landfall. Timing was off by five hours.

Not gonna ask....I knew I should have waited until later in the season to venture into the regional thread.

I hit 31.1 last night....one of the coldest nights so far.

Well, I am not sure I would want to take my chances with 2007-2008 again in the absence of some NAO assist....I lucked out in that the PV was so ginormous. That was great for you and NNE, yes.

One think that I love about la nina is the active northern stream....I hate when the s stream is dominant. There is much more margin for error with respect to the N stream from our area points north and east relative to the s stream.

Almost looks el nino like in that respect.

Yea, I don't feel like this season will want for chances....with a little luck, the season is entirely salvageable, and we may not need as much luck as RUNAWAYNOOSE would lead you to believe with a bit of NAO assist (I know). It doesn't appear to be a non-starter like last season ended up being, but I do expect a pretty abysmal mid winter stretch. I see could see a toned down (not AS warm February and not as robust March) 2017-2018. I think the ceiling for this December is 2008/2010.

Yea, agree. I could see a bit higher, but not much. My final range was 100-115mph...first guess on Monday was 85-100mph, which wasn't bad for that range...especially considering that I also correctly predicted the explosion to cat 4 status in the nw Caribbean.

My winter composite was dead-on. Not one of them had snowfall through the first week of October.

I went into this season with my mind made up that my outlook would be averse to any sustained NAO, but I am beginning to waiver on that idea (not just because of this)....at least with respect to December. I think it will be an active December, and the gradient maybe further south than it was in 2007.

I would not be stunned to see it come in as a strong cat 1, although cat 2 is much more likely.

DELTA Final Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/hurricane-delta-final-call.html?fbclid=IwAR3XtXWKFZZOOkT8WsFWhEtiOl1hdOB2slwf16nrv9PAHAboPEHC3mAJ73c New Orleans looks to have dodged yet another bullet. Landfall should occur around the sparsely populated Pecan Island, LA at around midnight tomorrow night with max sustained winds between 100 and 115mph. Main threat will be surge, but thankfully once again throughout primarily marshland. While wind won't be anything likely Laura, it will not have to be, as debris from Laura is still strewn throughout the area as projectiles at the ready. Dangerous situation for this area.....AGAIN.

Its in a relatively steady state with a slight bias towards intensification. As expected, IMO. I don't think the winds will ramp up much...maybe 110-115mph...