40/70 Benchmark

I think its even more so a solid indicator of just how uneventful last winter was. I know that if I were married in Feb 2015, my wife would not be due this fall.

Exactly. The recency bias. I'm not doubting the physics of what he is saying, but rather the degree to which it will be relevent moving forward, or the magnitude of the impact that it may have. Didn't hear much about this in March 2018, did we...aside from those telling me that winter was over and I was wrong about epic March blocking in February, while it was 70. As I stated my the winter review, I think the placement of the SSW really played a big role in mitigating last winter, while it saved the previous one. Like ENSO events, placement and timing is every bit as important as intensity. I'm learning this the hard way like the rest of us. We had sufficient blocking in early December, when we failed to cash in, and it is no cooincidence that it abated when it did. The SSW has a ripple effect, and it doesn't always mean snow in sne.

We have always had ENSO events that have deviated from the norm...hell, just 5 years ago we had a weak el nino behave pretty much as expected. I think the gradient saturation may become a more prevalent issue, but its difficult to say just how prominent and whether other factors could countermand its influence.

Probably has some merit, but like everything else, its overstated and not always that simple. Last season, that was correct.....other years, it wasn't as much of an issue. Maybe it is a more prominent issue moving forward as climo evolves, but we have seen seasons in the not so distant past become really blocking prone.

You will never get the last 4 months of your meterological life back.

No...just speaking of climo.

Slumber season is drawing to a close.

There was no doubt that the huge blocking that was pushed back all winter would manfest itself in April and stick around all summer. Uncanny.

ETA Novie 2nd, but I have a hunch that we will be trick or treating in the delivery room.

Thanks, Brian...mother nature owes me an el nino, so hopefully the atmosphere can deliver it haha

Hopefully we can take another stab at weak el nino this year....I like 1.2 and 3 starting cold, anyway. Thanks for the feedback, Raindance...good stuff.

I'd love to get a snowy December for once. Should have some time to really dig into things this fall, as I'll be out of work for awhile after my daughter is born.

Agree....should be either warm-neutral or weak el nino. If it were to be the latter, then find it hard to believe that we would have two consecutively that behaved so erratically, but I found alot hard to believe last year that I shouldn't have in hindsight. I think odds of nino are less than 50/50 atm.

Thanks, man....yea, we'll see. I don't see anything egregiously bad for next year, but as we saw last season, that does not guarantee anything. Hopefully we edge back into el nino territory.

I just mean that it didn't work out...I was confident, but I ended up with egg on my face because it was wrong....its an expression.

Just finishing brushing the egg off of my face from last season in time to begin parsing through data for the coming season. Early ENSO thoughts are nothing surprising. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/08/first-look-at-enso-for-winter-2019-2020.html

"Owning" failure is a prerequisite for learning...so if you aren't willing to do that, than none of your work is worth $hit.

What are your thoughts on 1969-1970? Just starting to look at things, and this season catches my eye for some obvious and not so obvious reasons. Good work last year. I have learned a great deal from your way of looking at things.

Yea, I remember you posting about that. May very well hold some weight.

Yea, no one nailed it....some obviously better than others, but even those that got it "right" missed some key points. I was awful.

I agree. Very solid contributor.

Verification: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/06/winter-outlook-2018-2019-verification.html Note that the final grade is representative of the overall, DM performance of the temp and snowfall forecast from the mid atlantic through SNE. Obviously, if we are just grading SNE snowfall, than its an F. But we aren't....so C-

I just need a break after winter...I go hard for like 5 months. I still have to do my post season write up...been backed up writing assessments at work.

Hi for the year so far today....82.8 off a low of 52.3. Unusually cool mornings late into year...hit 40 Tuesday am...I radiate very well. 64.0/55.2

This winter's tenor continues right into the afterlife.