40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Technically, no, but I came about as close you can get. Read it. I didn't have the technical prowess that I have now, as that was my initial foray into seasonal forecasting, but I explained why I thought that season would turn ferocious after a quiet first half.
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Last two seasons have been awful for me, and I am the first to say it. But I sure as hell nailed 2014-2015 and 2017-2018. I will grant you that my totals were a bit low, and I forecast the Atlantic to be the main driver of 2015, but it was the Pacific....that was all detailed in the post analysis.
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I did....would you like to see the post? Not quite to that degree, but it was about as descriptive as you can get.
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If that is screwed, sign me up. I got "screwed" in March 2018....yes, sir, may I have another.
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I was thinking the same thing, but the official large scale map always misses some....all the totals they use need to be verified by Jesus.
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I can contain confirmation that it is not happening...I'm not sure what confused you? They are predictable....if it doesn't work out, then those are the breaks. I predicted 2015 and 2018 both....called the Jan 2016 blizzard, too, but problem was I thought it would get NE more than it did. Those are the breaks.
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Cat 2 sounds about right.
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You know things could be better when storm threads outnumber inches on the month. -
That one fails, I'll give it one more before calling fail on the Jan 2011 talk.
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Yea, not my type of set up.
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I get what he means by the block slipping south a bit. It's not an ideal look for us, but I still see plenty of blocking in the Davis Strait. Strikes me as the type of storm I'd complain about, while posters from CT ostracize me for bitching.
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I agree that it's likely to be load blown SW deal.
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Yea, not in love with that look. Majority of the region can score a major event, but you can take the SNE upper tier off of the table.
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The hemispheric pattern is a little easier to nail down than the nuances of a phase to within 50 mi.
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I think the EPS looks "best" right now.....GEPS worst.
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You will find a way to pull 2"
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Weekend Storm Potential Following Monday's brief episode of inclement weather, medium range ensemble guidance is signaling a storm system to pass out to sea over the weekend, underneath the developing NAO block. However, it does seem close enough to warrant vigilance over the course of the week. It appears as though the day to watch is primarily Saturday. ECMWF Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: Canadian Ensemble Mean:
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Frisky old man....
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Final Call for a general coating to 2", most favored SW of Boston, hills of N CT/RI, and ORH hills. Berkshires 1-3" Also brief mention of next weekend. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/final-call-for-nuisance-event-monday.html
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What I don't like as that all the ensembles are very supressed.
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2/16/18...worked last time this was bumped
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Yea, to insert its finger in your tailpipe.
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Says the guy who got 3' two weeks ago.
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12z is a case of too many cooks in the kitchen and no team work.
