40/70 Benchmark

BIG game tonight....do or die.

Its dumb to run seasonal guidance that frequently.

I guess I should have said "At least we can still see a pathway to a decent winter at this juncture"...that is really what I meant.

I think I had about 1' in that. Yea, I guess that month was okay...just didn't stand out in my recollection.

Its makes big polar blocking less likely.

You are taking what I said too literally, but some years were close...especially south of New England.

At least its not clearly a lost cause, which is all we can ask for these days.

Yea, I'll take the currier and ives xmas week or on the heels of a big dog, but otherwise my eyes would glaze over.

Thanks for the clarification. I expect RONI to peak in moderate territory...tough call, agreed. I would be fine with a 2021-2022 type of result or even 2022-2023 with a bit less amplification out west.

CONUS as a whole, but the east will take a true El Nino over La Nina...and I say "true " El Nino because I am not referring to that hellish hybrid that we had last year.

My opinion on this is that La Nina itself if weak sauce in that its not the driving mechanism, however, the warm pool baseline is mimicking a stronger La Nina, so it doesn't really matter...same end result. If we are being consistent with ourselves, then that should lead to a period of disconnect from said baseline due to the ebb and flow of the wave strength.

I think this just proves that @bluewaveis actually human..as bright as he is. He just won't support a respectable winter in the NE again until it actually happens at this point, but I would prefer he just say that then make a subtle effort to move the goalposts.

Exactly...kind of what I was getting at. All we hear about is how phase 5 runs the world, but now that the October rule has worked out....weak sauce.

Seems a bit inconsistent to post about how strong the cold ENSO signal is in the north Pacific, then then focus on the ONI and insist that its weak. If we saw these competing MC forces result in the very mild "El Nina" winter for the NE last year, then why wouldn't this La Nina act stronger?? I think much of the NE would also take a 2021-2022 outcome at this point. I do agree skepticism is warranted regarding December. I don't even recall December 2020 being that great where I am. December 2019 had a great event....

Completely agree.

I figured we would see that strong MJO pulse this month. I've been implying that in our exchanges. La Nina itself is meager, but the baseline is not.

NE wind often will often even kill me that early...need it like NNE.

Eh...I have learned my lesson on that. In order to adjust too much colder, I'd need to see the whites of the weenie after having my ass handed to me by Bluewave's pee pee pool two years running.

Which is probably enough to constitute a dumpser fire in the lower terrain of the mid atlantic during December as it relates to snowfall.

In the mean, yes.

I defintely should have been more measured with this statement. I can see how it could have a colder stetch, but we would need some breaks. Anway, its not like I was referring to an early east coast snowstorm or anything...don't want to be misleading.

Looks like it could try to sneak into the better phases at a low amplitude in November, but it would probaly need to be stronger to not get washed out by the baseline warm pool.

The month is going to be warm in the mean....no question. Just saying there could be a colder stretch in there if the MJO cooperates before it warms up again.

I think November will have a really nice stretch.

A lot of the coop data is dreadful.