40/70 Benchmark

You should throw up the pic of me that scooter is obsessed with over Methuen lol

Raindance, I have garnered alot of respect for your methodology over the past year, but I'm a bit confounded as to how you interpret a weak el nino as an unfavorable development for NE winter. I get that you weigh solar very heavily, but betting against NE winter in a weak modoki el nino, if that does indeed materialize, is a risky proposition. We'll see...maybe you will nail it. You certainly know your stuff. Anyway, four of the six seasons that you mentioned featured above average snowfall in Boston...of course, 1994 and 2018 were awful. 2007 was epic in CNE and NNE. 2004 was epic in the Boston area, 2009 epic in mid atl. 1994 is actually good ENSO match, but its going to fall out of favor if the eastern ENSO regions don't spike a great deal this month.

No. Modoki is best for mid atl and sne, but good everywhere. Mod is better for mid atl, weak sne.

I haven't seen anything from him yet...

I totally agree.

This was raindancewx's response last week, but he is about ready to give up on neutral now.

I'd have to look back...I think 1994 was actually the best match, but the eastern regions were warming quickly by now. Anyway, 3.4 is what matters, and its about +0.5 now..

I think it would be good for winter as a whole, but it could mean a slower start, too. But el nino is far from a given, as Will said. My point last week was just that it remains a plausibility.

Since 1990, every season which featured nino region 4 over+.5C in late september went on to become el nino. I had the list on my last blog. This one was +1.0.

Some moron that Anthony quoted on twitter. Saw another story on Facebook from Wilmington Patch...."converging weather systems is perfeft storm, just less intense". Yes, last winter was Feb 2015, just milder and 60" less snow.

Bingo. I've seen some drama queens drawing perfect storm comps on social media.

Starting to look more like a true modoki weak el nino...not even basin-wide, like last year.

Yea, I never understood why some were dismissing chances for weak el nino with region 4 being so warm.

I think the SSW played a large role, as it ultimately provided the impetus for the PV to coalesce and the MJO was just pinned. That is the risk in really meager ENSO events...alternate forcing mechanisms can interfere.

Agree.

I think its a bit too hasty to definitively procliam any typical manifestation of weak ENSO as purely coincidental.

Yea, bares watching....I have not written el nino off. And the modoki rating can change swiftly, as we saw last year.

Its probably not going to be an el nino at all, but the surface and subsurface warmth is definitely biased west.

2012 ended up being a fine winter out here.

Looks like the seasonal snowfall gradient this past winter.

I'm in the minority, but I don't track something like that any more than I do a sunny day. Its either going to rain hard and be blustery imby, or be damp and not blustery. I lean toward the latter, but couldn't care less. No knock on those that do...I get it.

Am I the only one who doesn't care where it trends?

30.9 last night. Two freezes.

En route to another freeze... 32.5/32.2

33.8/33.4