40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Thank god....much rather have Thanksgiving dinner amid cloudy skies and temps near 40, as opposed to sunny and 60. Now it will feel like a holiday.
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I think you read a bit too much into that....all I meant was a neutral NAO beats the hell out of the exotic positives that we have grown accustomed to. I never said its the entire story HAHA. I lived through 2009-2010 here in SNE, so trust that I know a negative NAO is not a panacea. lol You are also correct that there is more to the NAO domain than the assigned numerical index value.
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People are getting wayyyyy ahead of themselves with this. Lets gain a measure of confidence for a serviceable pattern here in NE, before hoisting the warnings for NC.
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Does the reason begin with an "H", and end with an "L"...?
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The NAO help isn't a surprise to me, but I did not expect PNA in December....that would be a welcome addition.
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I knew all of the bridge jumping over December was BS. Just let it play out...
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That doesn't look bad...especially week 3.
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I like that....maybe your most valuable contribution all fall.
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Where is Kevin and his sleigh full of weenies when you need them...
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Yea, the NAO is only helpful if you have cold air already in place...in this case, rather run this risk of a hugger, than have a good track with no cold.
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I only used it as a secondary analog because of the ONI and MEI criteria that I employed, but that season is one of the better sensible weather analogs for how I see this winter playing out. Even the blocking just east of Greenland was a very prevalent feature in my composite.
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Do you mean due to the stagnation of a neg NAO...IE, not allowing the old Pac puke to bleed out?
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Right....I think climo and the cold reservoir improve throughout the month.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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SO MEI value held at -1.2 https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
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I think "the first half of December shows signs of improvement" is more accurate.
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The Whale released him after he tried to rope it into coauthoring the Dawn Awakening...
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Taking cover under his novel
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Set a record for safety.
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I don't think that you will be too far off this season. I think I went with + .25 to .55 range...basically neutral-positive. I think most would take a near neutral NAO and run, this year. lol
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Most bombed the arctic last season....I think all of the smoke from the fires really augmented the PV.
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Yea....there isn't much cold for the PNA to advect.
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He just means that Canada is filled with Pacific air.
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Hadley Boooommmmmb....BOOM!!
