40/70 Benchmark

Lot's of people aren't okay with ruining the economy due to a .01% mortality rate. The vulnerable should quarantine.

Please excuse my ignorance, but what is FIL?

Some of us don't have nearly as far to regress as others.

Gotcha.

That storm remains the largest sleet event that I have ever seen...not close.

Despite losing climo, I feel like you have more margin for error with respect to scoring in an unfavorable pattern in March due to the changing wavelengths. All it takes is one well placed bowling ball....

That was 2007...and it was NNE and NYS. Areas north of the pike and beyond rt 128 in SNE had about 6-8" of snow and sleet.

He bases his thoughts for the entire winter on the PV, which is a flawed methodology. PV is strong.....yes. No one expects much blocking this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean winter cancel. He also gets too carried away when guidance wanes on PV intensity because it's not the only factor.

His area looks very good given prognostications.

I think the one great storm is more of an el nino phenomenon.

I didn't get that vibe at all. He was forecasting a good January.

I was doing me....you quoted and replied to me. Since he had average seasonal snowfall south of the pike, I assumed he wasn't forecasting a 60" January for N CT again.

You have a very strange obsession with that season. His outlook was not similar to that season at all, except for January being the most wintery month.

I agree. This is why I had higher snowfalls than most for the mid atl.

I am pretty pleased with Isotherm-Tom's outlook..........especially north of the pike. Tough sledding for the higher elevations south of the pike....I will be sure to take pics for them. Glad we don't live there.

Was you primary analog 2007 or 1975?

Great work, as usual. We are largely in agreement, but differ a bit on how we arrive there. We agree that the seasonal PNA will be near neutral or even positive in the mean, but I favor PNA more in the second half. You also favor the most wintry period in January, and I am more December. I would not be surprised if you have the better idea there, as I was torn on whether to favor Dec 15 to Jan 15, but ended up highlighting December, while acknowledging that the favorable pattern could linger into January. Caveat being that you aren't that hostile for SNE in December....we both agree that the mid atl will struggle early. February will be terrible. Agreed. I mentioned some hope for March, but it is low confidence and did not bake in into the snowfall forecast.

Nice three year run of winters that was.

And that one screwed NE. The Jan 2015 event porked the mid atl.....you have to go back to Feb 2013 to get one that nailed the mid atl to NE.

Completely agree. We should see forcing pinned closer to the dateline for a good chunk of December, which is more reminiscent of an ep la nina.

I agree....I begrudgingly held off, which was tough with a several day string of 70's. I am all set with doing it twice.

I could see this winter ending up similarly to that one.

Largely basin wide la nina climo dictates that the polar domain is less hostile early on. By cold, I mean near normal or slightly below.

Yea, so you had the same two ratters that I did.