40/70 Benchmark

I do not anticipate a repeat of December 2014....December 2019 will not be hostile. I foresee an improving Pacific later this season, but as a seasonal mean, I don't feel as though it will be extremely favorable...save for maybe the arctic domain (-EPO).

I haven't spoken much about the NAO during the lead in, but I do not anticipate a repeat of last year's hostile Atlantic. As far as ENSO, while we will be prone to interludes of alternative forcing mechanisms given both the meager intensity and delayed onset of the ensuing warm ENSO event, I do not anticipate sustained la nina like forcing to be a prevalent feature like last year. Latest bimonthly MEI is already +.30 and will only ascend from this point until the onset of boreal winter.

Agree...I don't see the typical lackluster December generally associated with el nino.

Love this thread....lots of good stuff in this forum.

I def. agree with the translation eastward of the developing el nino...much like last year. That is that main difference between this season and 2014..el nino is developing a bit later and is working from west to east, whereas that year it was east to west. Otherwise, 2014 is a good ENSO analog.

Should be a weak el nino this season....best ENSO analog is 2014-2015. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/confidence-grows-in-late-marginal-el.html Winter outlook 11-12-19.

Since you said that it suggested positive last year, I count 10 hits, 3 whiffs and 1 neutral. Pretty good, despite the terrible showing two years ago.

DM NAO ended up being +.74 , so pretty big miss for your indicator that season, which was very negative. However it is worth noting that March was a very big NAO....

I found my reference to your work...it was the outlook for not last winter, but the previous one. Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck" devised a formula roughly a decade ago that predicts the mean aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north Atlantic. We strongly endorse this methodology as the most accurate predictor available for the mean state of the winter NAO. The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations that we so often reference. "In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs, showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was 7). Since then the index has performed wonderfully after the fact: 2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter .. Yes 2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Yes 2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Yes 2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... even 2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Strong Yes 2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Yes 2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Yes 2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... No 2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Yes 2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Yes 9-1-2 This index as a value forecasting tool is proven high, although the scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in my opinion. Since so many people have asked me about this in the last few years, I thought it a good idea to make a post. The index is a measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter. When red box is warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65% value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa. The index this year is strong -NAO. Top 10-15 negative index of all predictive years going back to 1948 (69)". Needless to say, we believe that the case for a predominately -NAO phase this winter is a strong one, and this means that it is more likely than not that the arctic oscillation will also be in its negative mode more often than not. But we can look far above the sea surface of the equatorial Pacific to find more definitive indicators.

2004 and 1976 were pretty epic in SNE, too. I would agree that this isn't a clear-cut blockbuster season, though.

9-3-2? What does 2 denote, a tie? Lol Yea, I remember it caught on with Jack O (RIP), too. Raindance reminds me of him.

So you nailed it. Maybe the year before it was that you were going very negative and it missed I remember I was a fan of your work back in Eastern...good luck this year.

You predicted negative NAO last year, didn't you?

100 shades of boring....paths to engagement are scarce for me for another month or so..

Can not for the life of me wrap my mind around why some folks get so worked up over sensible fall weather and perceived implications with regard to winter. I'm not there yet....oh, no....its 60 and sunny, as opposed to 48 and rainy...yikes!

No one is calling for a snowmageddon in New England, but I don't see any awful signs is the point.

Thanks for the great info, raindance, as always. 2004 and 2014 are two modokis I do not mind mirroring.

I am a pretty elite radiator, I have come to realize..

32.9, my bad. 2 Freezes, so far...29 on 10/5 and 31 on 10/6

32.2 here.. already had a few freezes.

Agree. I never expect to see them run cold.

Cold is heavy and dense...it gravitates to the lower spots.

Yea, for MBY, agreed....45mph gusts and 2"+ of rain is a pretty common occurrence.

Not for MBY I wasn't impressed, but didn't expect that. I was shocked by what I saw in Malden...and the 70mph in Boston. Yikes. THAT is impressive.

Credit to Scott and Nick for the seasonal guidance.....put some thoughts together this evening... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/winter-2020-preliminary-thoughts-vs.html More on ENSO next week, but I mentioned last month not to give up on marginal el nino.