40/70 Benchmark

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/winter-2019-2020-modified-modoki.html City Predicted Snowfall Actual Forecast Error Boston, MA 45-55” ? ? New York, NY 20-30" ? ? Philadelphia, PA 17-27" ? ? Baltimore, MD 15-25” ? ? Washington, DC 15-25” ? ? Albany, NY 65-75” ? ? Hartford, CT 50-60” ? ? Providence, RI 40-50” ? ? Worcester, MA 70-80” ? ? Tolland, CT 60-70" ? ? Methuen, MA 65-75” ? ? Hyannis, MA 20-30” ? ? Burlington, VT 80-90" ? ? Portland, ME 70-80” ? ? Concord, NH 65-75” ? ? Index Value Predicted '19-'20 DM Value Range Actual '19-'20 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) 0 to .30 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) .15 to .45 ? ? ENSO Weak Modoki El Nino (0.3 to 0.5C ONI) (NDJ) 0.5C NDJ ONI .50 Modoki ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) -.15 to -.45 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) 0 to -.30 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.15 to .15 ? ?

Warm-neutral ENSO....not a top analog...

16.5/14.6 Decoupling..

17.8/15.6

22.8/16.7

Yes.

Mine were unnecessarily lol. Can't spin that-

Many were...mine included.

My two bad missess were due to getting the polar domain wrong during el nino events. NAO and AO are tough to predict...breaking news, I know.

I normally don't read outlooks before issuning mine.

I think more for the second half...

The problem last year was that atmosphere didn't respond to the ocean....there was no coupling until very late season.

I think this warm ENSO event will end up central based, like last year and 2005. Warmth is progressing east and Japanese guidance supports a continuation of this.

Good analog, but not my number one. Later onset should have ramifications this season.

SOI and subsurface all supportive of weak el nino...which is why ocean has been responding. Writing about that now in outlook.

Bet on late peaking weak el nino, not neutral.

I wasn't suprised at all.

It took you five years to glance over under my avatar? I moved about 12 mi due north last fall, from Wilmington to Methuen, MA. Not at all remote.

When the arctic hounds are unleashed on hell, and the devil wades through sea ice.

Well, hopefully he encountered verification scores during his doctoral ciriculum. Lol

I think the increased access to a larger array of data has allowed for greater scrutiny of every failure, as well, which fuels this misperception. It runs twice as often now, too, so obviously there will be more variablity.

Well, statistically speaking, you and a few pro mets are incorrect.

Euro isn't the same; it's better.

Crickets... I at least referenced it in my blogs during previous seasons, albeit usually to illustrate why the euro was preferred, but probably won't this year.