40/70 Benchmark

Its a little more...forecast is slightly above. That season was normal to slightly below. We need second half blocking....that is the upward variance. Pacific won't be epic like 05 and 15..at least not for the whole season..

No. Not that warm.

Its slow because its moving like 1.5 points per month. If that isn't below average, then what is??

That is slow...take a look at the 2010 flip to positive... 2010 -16.02 -16.98 -19.68 -23.57 -26.28 -25.05 -9.84 1.45 6.58 10.83 12.16 10.97 Plenty of other examples, aside from that nearly 16 differential in one month.

Man, 12.8 for the low and just 35.6 for the hi. Frigid...

Steve will be by the web cam with the doggies...licking the screen and all...right there with them..

No, that's real in theory..but then again, no one lives there to confirm

Edge of my seat...let me fire up the blog for those six dear..

Those are my thoughts for December...very active with cold around, but it won't be frigid with no blocking, so there will be precip type issues. Well timed NAO could rely produce bigtime, though..

Euro.

@Typhoon Tip....only point I will disagree with is that its quelling off quickly, which is my main point. Its been very slow. Take a look at the rate of descent in some other seasons in that tabular data...

Oh, all valid points. Its far from an exact science....totally debatable.

No worries....its relevant.

Vicarious congrats, @Ginx snewx

You need to keep in mind that the negative QBO is not descending until like February, which could factor in...

13.1/10.4

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though. We'll see.

Gotcha. I'm not a big math guy....social worker by trade. I can do that in the future, but the forecast amounts vs actual are there for everyone to see. I'm quite happy with my level of success overall, last year not withstanding.

Thanks, but I'll leave it. Forecast error for me is the percentage that verified seasonal snowfall totals deviated from my forecast range. Regardless, the forecast and verified totals are there to see. It was bad in sne. I focus most on snowfall, and its much less in the northeast than last season's forecast. Additionally, the forecast is not as cold as the composite maps...I specified that. Last season, I forecast an epic second half..this season, its onky salavagable with blocking. It wasn't that warm in the east last year. Good luck-

I love me some urinal cake #dontlickthefrosting Weheeeeeeeee

Thanks, Tom. I have learned alot from your work, as always.

Like I just said in mid atl forum, it was difficult for me to communicate the potential of the second half, while concomitantly conveying that it was lower confidence due to the reliance upon the onset of blocking. I am more confident in the PNA period. I feel at least some blocking materializes second half....but it will suck if it doesn't. Should be some NAO in Dec, too, but transient.

I could easily see the second half being better, but I have more confidence in the first half because the good second half is dependent upon blocking....if that makes sense...

15.8 for the low..