The back half of winter is going to be reliant on the NAO IMO. As far as December goes, I think there will be a wintery stretch, but the rubber band will likely snap back on any SSW and we likely go mild later in the month into January.
Ukie trended a bit warmer...12z had weekend system ending as flurries to I495....poof on 00z.
I think people got carried away with the 00z NAM because my product reflects very little in the way of snowfall for sne...actually looks like the EURO with the Houlton, ME focus. Maybe an inch or two of slush for Monadnocks.
Season should start in early December...hang with 'em.
I'm also leery of any PV disruptions providing some temporary deconstructive interference to attempts at sustained blocking. Bottom line to expect variability early on...better bet for sustainability is later on.
So far, it does seem like any SSW may be more conducive than last season's.
That is my issue....I expected some NAO in December, but also variabilty, which should promote storminess. Doubt the sustained block early on in the season. Could have some prolonged PNA, though.