40/70 Benchmark

There is some transient NAO ridging, but its not 8SD block like 2010. We'll see-

What does this graphic mean?

So why shouldn't guidance close this off too quickly like so many other Miller Bs???

Both Miller Bs.

Yes.

I'm more concerned with the pressing confluence, than I am the faster occlusion. I know we always hear about the late nw trend due to latent heat from convection, but that is more with miller As.

One's man's treasure if often his own delusion, as well. Models love to rush the development of miller B's....like a told I cohort of salivating NYC weenies when the EURO jacked them in Jan 2015.

12z EURO makes me want to vomit. I'd absolutely lose it after last season. Not only does it track further se, but it closes off and occludes sooner, so the load is shot sw.

Its caved both directions Other guidance lapping it..

Dec '92 Lite..

I had diaper duty and didn't sleep one wink...but its okay bc it gon snow

Hopefully it stops right there-

How far south did the 06z euro trend?

Feel better..

Feet for you....stay safe.

Exactly...due to the angle of the dangle (coast).

I maybe like 30 if the cf gets near me..

No, it isn't. However as is on the EURO, I am good. Let me know when you are in the area, dude.

Sleet has nothing to do with the boundary layer, first of all. Secondly, I'm outside of I495, on the NH border. Not too worried.

I think you are in for a good bit of sleet and maybe some frz rain.

I'm sure we will do Worcester shortly after the new year; hell, if people aren't receptive to this, I'll head out that way and chill with you guys before the holiday.

My slight increase in latitude may finally pay dividends. Got porked, last year.

@donsutherland1 I think you are on the right track, Don. Very similar to my thoughts.

Euro looked great. Here is my blogpost. This evening's heavy rainfall should be a distant memory by the time we sit down with our loved ones to indulge in a Thanksgiving day feast later today. Fair weather should prevail for Black Friday and through the weekend, affording many of us an opportunity to partake in that exercise in procrastination that is Christmas shopping. And as fate would have it, mother nature may just decide to make it a bit more festive as the calendar flips to December. Perhaps a snow shovel may be a suitable gift for some of us. Last Sunday, Eastern Mass Weather utilized teleconnector convergence to flag Monday December 2 as the first potential winter storm of the season. However a retreating ridge node in the vicinity of Greenland was cited as the reason why heavy amounts of snowfall may be reserved for areas of central and northern New England. While that ridging still does appear as though it will cede ground, other subtle changes over southeast Canada may act to supply just enough cold air to the regions to begin to make it look much more like Christmas. Note that the large low pressure area just to the north of New Foundland is slightly stonger in the latest guidance, which acts to hold more of the cold high pressure in place to the north of us over Quebec. This could potentially have important implications since a potent 500mb low is currently projected to traverse beneath the latitude of southern New England on Monday morning, which is a very ominous sign in terms of snowfall potential. There remains a significant chance that this system could track slightly further to the north, and the high pressure may retreat little faster, which would mean very little in the way of snow across the majority of southern New England. However current trends favor an abrupt beginning to winter this Monday, and commuters should remain mindful of the fact that boreal winter will be upon us this Sunday. First Call will be issued on Friday night. Here is the initial Snowfall Threat Assessment. Happy Thanksgiving!