40/70 Benchmark

Yea, obviously there are more acute causes of chronic discomfort. Sucks. I don't know how I have avoided more chronic issues after that wreck I was in 1/2010....absolute miracle, but I'm sure my rigorous fitness regimen plays a role. My left lat will never feel exactly the same, as they extracted it to graph the tube into my aorta. But I can not complain.

Most prevalent cause of of chronic lower back pain is a weak core. Its easier to skate by in your 20s and early 30s, but it will usually come to a head in your later 30s.

There isn't any cold air for the PNA to tap, though....that may work during the heart of winter, but it won't in early December....at least not for I95.

I agree with the fact that an active storm track bodes better than nothing at all.

Definitely...I lift 3x weekly and jog about 13mi weekly. Very little discomfort even at 40.

Early signs are that that the PNA may begin the month a bit more favorable than expected.. There is also some support for perhaps some subtle disruptions of the PV during the month, which would be congruent with what was expected during the month of December. I do not expect the early month PNA to bare much if any fruit for the coast, as climo is relatively hostile and Canada is still largely void of cold. After about the 10th. cold reservoir be more replenished and climo will be less adversarial. I like the chances for a white xmas across a lot of the region....especially pike points north and outside of rt 128. December 2020 Outlook The polar vortex is likely going to begin the season quite consolidated near the pole during the month of November. However, the polar domain should become slightly less hostile to the development of periodic higher heights during the month of December, which may bring the AO and NAO closer to neutral, as dictated by previously referenced la nina climatology. This is when the more canonical, eastern pacific la nina regime will try to flex its muscle. Note the Aleutian high displaced to the northwest, and protruding poleward. The greatest positive height anomalies will likely be biased over the Aleutians, and to the east of Greenland, perhaps similar to the Ural blocking of October. This does not mean to imply excessive blocking for the period, which is not constituted by higher Ural heights, but more likely at least some transient periods of positive heights at higher latitudes. Alaska should also predominately feature some higher heights, especially across the western portion. There should be continuous RNA, so there is warmer bust potential should the vortex remain more consolidated than forecast. December Forecast H5 Composite: December Forecast Temperature Composite: There has only been one winter (DM) month, March 2018, that has averaged a negative NAO since February and March 2013. It is postulated that there is a high likelihood that we will add to that list this season. Most likely in December, but possibly March or even both. The month of December should average 1-2 degrees below normal for northern New England, near normal to a degree above normal for central southern New England, and 1-2 degrees above normal from north to south near New York City points southward into the mid atlantic. Cold will dump over the high plains and bleed eastward. December Forecast Precipitation Composite: It should be an active period marked by above average precipitation, especially for points north of Washington, DC. Primary modes of cyclogenesis include Alberta clippers, southwest flow events, and Miller B redevelopers, the latter of which especially prevalent during periods of negative NAO. New England should be favored for snowfall, especially central and northern parts of the region. The mid atlantic will need breaks in the RNA to coincide with negative NAO flex for significant snowfall, which is not exceedingly likely, but possible. A White Christmas is more probably than climatology would suggest this season. While the month is likely to average a negative NAO in the mean, this is not meant to imply that excessive blocking will reside for the entirety of the month.

Took that quote as between 12/1 and 21....which I agree with. But I agree with you that 1-9 or so shouldn't have much of anything.

Yes. That is the date that I have always had in mind....the second week of December is fair game.

Agree. I would expect to get going around the second week of December.

Seems like somewhat of an inverse from last season...when things looked good through the first week of December, then went to shit.

Model consensus that the PV will split?

Basically serviceable look establishes itself when climo does. Not awful.

I don't really concern myself with summer outlooks. True RE 2005-2006 wastedMarch potential. I actually used the 2005-2006 analog for the 2017-2018 season, citing the forecasted bookend nature of the winter, with an exotically mild stretch in between. Both were ep la nina seasons. Difference is we capitalized on the March potential in 2018. I don't think 1975-1976 is a bad sensible weather analog, but it did not meet my analog criteria.

Nothing new.

I would give more weight to a modified Dec 1970, but 1999-2000 the rest of the way. 2005-2006 was actually very east based....not mixed type. Nina much weaker...it actually had more going for it leading in. ACE was of course off the charts. Not sure why it was so mild...solar?

Thanks for the clarification.

I have three..... 1995-1996 127.5" in Wilmington, 2004-2005 107.5" in Wilmington, and 2014-2015 115.5" in Wilmington.

I don't see why it should...its hurricane season. Do we look at 2015 and 2005 any differently in terms of snowfall?

2/4 of my mixed la nina composite. 1970, 1999, 2007 and 2010. I incorporated 2010 very little for various reasons. 2007 is best.

Yea, I was being conservative.

ACE is up to 180....I think @raindancewx said 175 was the breaking point for snowier outcomes in the NE, but since they name every pop up shower today, maybe 170 is a more accurate assessment of this season's activity. Close.

I was just ripping through 2015 threads....good shit. Maintains winter morale...

Well, the globe has warmed in 35 years....I think the PDO was predominately positive, too. The arctic was similar.