40/70 Benchmark

Yea, the NAO is only helpful if you have cold air already in place...in this case, rather run this risk of a hugger, than have a good track with no cold.

I only used it as a secondary analog because of the ONI and MEI criteria that I employed, but that season is one of the better sensible weather analogs for how I see this winter playing out. Even the blocking just east of Greenland was a very prevalent feature in my composite.

Do you mean due to the stagnation of a neg NAO...IE, not allowing the old Pac puke to bleed out?

Right....I think climo and the cold reservoir improve throughout the month.

SO MEI value held at -1.2 https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

I think "the first half of December shows signs of improvement" is more accurate.

The Whale released him after he tried to rope it into coauthoring the Dawn Awakening...

Taking cover under his novel

Set a record for safety.

I don't think that you will be too far off this season. I think I went with + .25 to .55 range...basically neutral-positive. I think most would take a near neutral NAO and run, this year. lol

Most bombed the arctic last season....I think all of the smoke from the fires really augmented the PV.

Yea....there isn't much cold for the PNA to advect.

He just means that Canada is filled with Pacific air.

Hadley Boooommmmmb....BOOM!!

I noticed the same thing. Difference of a day or two is noise. The point is that the second week of December is much more favorable.

There needs to be a cold source......the high is the vehicle for the cold. Worcester hills could probably pull it off, sure.

I don't think I will because its so tied into my emotional well being, as well. I have seen some dark days and exercise is an enormous outlet for me. Wife has learned to afford me the time to exercise. lol

Yea, obviously there are more acute causes of chronic discomfort. Sucks. I don't know how I have avoided more chronic issues after that wreck I was in 1/2010....absolute miracle, but I'm sure my rigorous fitness regimen plays a role. My left lat will never feel exactly the same, as they extracted it to graph the tube into my aorta. But I can not complain.

Most prevalent cause of of chronic lower back pain is a weak core. Its easier to skate by in your 20s and early 30s, but it will usually come to a head in your later 30s.

There isn't any cold air for the PNA to tap, though....that may work during the heart of winter, but it won't in early December....at least not for I95.

I agree with the fact that an active storm track bodes better than nothing at all.

Definitely...I lift 3x weekly and jog about 13mi weekly. Very little discomfort even at 40.

Early signs are that that the PNA may begin the month a bit more favorable than expected.. There is also some support for perhaps some subtle disruptions of the PV during the month, which would be congruent with what was expected during the month of December. I do not expect the early month PNA to bare much if any fruit for the coast, as climo is relatively hostile and Canada is still largely void of cold. After about the 10th. cold reservoir be more replenished and climo will be less adversarial. I like the chances for a white xmas across a lot of the region....especially pike points north and outside of rt 128. December 2020 Outlook The polar vortex is likely going to begin the season quite consolidated near the pole during the month of November. However, the polar domain should become slightly less hostile to the development of periodic higher heights during the month of December, which may bring the AO and NAO closer to neutral, as dictated by previously referenced la nina climatology. This is when the more canonical, eastern pacific la nina regime will try to flex its muscle. Note the Aleutian high displaced to the northwest, and protruding poleward. The greatest positive height anomalies will likely be biased over the Aleutians, and to the east of Greenland, perhaps similar to the Ural blocking of October. This does not mean to imply excessive blocking for the period, which is not constituted by higher Ural heights, but more likely at least some transient periods of positive heights at higher latitudes. Alaska should also predominately feature some higher heights, especially across the western portion. There should be continuous RNA, so there is warmer bust potential should the vortex remain more consolidated than forecast. December Forecast H5 Composite: December Forecast Temperature Composite: There has only been one winter (DM) month, March 2018, that has averaged a negative NAO since February and March 2013. It is postulated that there is a high likelihood that we will add to that list this season. Most likely in December, but possibly March or even both. The month of December should average 1-2 degrees below normal for northern New England, near normal to a degree above normal for central southern New England, and 1-2 degrees above normal from north to south near New York City points southward into the mid atlantic. Cold will dump over the high plains and bleed eastward. December Forecast Precipitation Composite: It should be an active period marked by above average precipitation, especially for points north of Washington, DC. Primary modes of cyclogenesis include Alberta clippers, southwest flow events, and Miller B redevelopers, the latter of which especially prevalent during periods of negative NAO. New England should be favored for snowfall, especially central and northern parts of the region. The mid atlantic will need breaks in the RNA to coincide with negative NAO flex for significant snowfall, which is not exceedingly likely, but possible. A White Christmas is more probably than climatology would suggest this season. While the month is likely to average a negative NAO in the mean, this is not meant to imply that excessive blocking will reside for the entirety of the month.

Took that quote as between 12/1 and 21....which I agree with. But I agree with you that 1-9 or so shouldn't have much of anything.