40/70 Benchmark

I totally get what you mean...it seems to arrive at its good verification score via mean of crazy uncle extremes more often than not.

It was actually the best with regard to the tropics this past season.

Winter Kev is back as of 12/1....Kevins in seasons.

I was just going to say that....known bias.

Great....traded in the bottle for a baby carriage lol

Hey Randy, hope all is well. When is the next conference?

That was house money.....if we fail mid month, then worry.

Yes.

This is from my last blog update on Thanksgiving.....still like this time frame, as it offers a nice convergence between analog climo and current guidance. This turn of events would render it very likely that southern New England will experience a major winter storm by the end of the second week of December. This would be consistent with climatology from some of the active December analogs, as the first major winter storms in December 2007 and 2008 occurred on December 13 and 19, respectively. Anything prior to said time frame will take some luck....but it should be pretty fast and furious once we break the seal towards mid month. This is how I expected December to play out when I issued the outlook about a month ago.

It goes back to what Will, Scott and I originally said last week....sit tight until after 12/10.

Yes.

Its probably all s stream.

How is that an awful comment? I thought it was the most illuminating post in the thread.

In the short term, yes. Talk to me in a month.

I would prefer that to dry and mild everywhere...its illustrates an amplified pattern.

Where?

What a melt.

I'd hit that.

Well, that was all you on that other event....I was just talking about 12-5-03.

The sensible appeal of that winter reminds me of 2013-2014. The respective H5 composites probably wouldn't match well, but just in the sense that I hear about how great they were, yet each lacked big snowfall where I am. January 2004 just an epic chap stick advertisement....record cold with no mositure.

Yea, there was a sharp subsidence "bone zone" beyond rt 128...2003 scarred me. PD II 10 months prior pulled the same shit-

Peabody, Salem and Danvers actually had over 3'....oes assist. I even measured 26" at my dad's in Woburn center, but 8 mi nw in my hood.....12". lol

Yes. Provisional solution as the model gravitates towards reality....thing is, this one is moving in the opposite direction, as the inverted deals are usually trending away from the storm.

That is the case quite often with the inverted troughs...usually in attempt to reconcile past robust solutions with the realization that the system would either miss, or not materialize.

The safest route is little jabs TBH....the stakes are higher with a split/wholesale displacement. It needs to evolve correctly or one region can get screwed.