40/70 Benchmark

Yea, just went through here...

My 1-3" of slush call worked out...nice.

I think Kocin would include it in the "near miss" section...

Check this excerpt out from my 11/24 blog post....stratospheric assist mid Dec via NAO pulse imo https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html The potential ramifications of this stratospheric warming on on the polar domain during the month of December may not be as many anticipate, and will instead act to ensure that blocking is not in fact sustained. While sustained episodes of blocking have been intermittently evident on extended range guidance, this is likely in error. Any such occurrence will likely be reserved for later in the season because conditions should be hostile for the development of sustained blocking during the first half of boreal winter 2019-2020 due to the considerable initial intensity of the PV, in conjunction with the delayed descent of the easterly QBO phase. As outlined in the winter outlook, this does not preclude intervals of negative NAO and bouts of wintery early season weather, owed to the elongation of the PV that is conducive to periodic and transient cold intrusions, as well expected volatility of the NAO modality. It is also important to note that while conditions appear favorable for at least minor disruptions to the PV, as specified, its recovery from any such occurrence is expected to be both proficient and timely. This is due in part to climatology favoring only minor assaults early in the season, as well as the anticipated resiliency of a potent PV denoted by +AO conditions presently observed within the polar stratosphere. Furthermore, while the period immediately preceding SSW events is usually hostile too blocking, it also can serve to amplify the MJO, which is currently projected to be in phase 8 at the height of the SSW, around December 15. -NAO Pulse Favored During Excited MJO Phase 8 in associated with Potential SSW Mid December Thus it is reasonable to expect a major negative NAO pulse at mid month, which would coincide with a major coastal event prior to the abatement of said negative NAO, thereafter. This amplification of the MJO should constructively interfere with the apex of modest warm ENSO forcing to induce a prolonged period of +PNA and -EPO throughout the month of December, which will act to at least initially countermand the increasingly hostile polar domain in advance of any propagation of stratospheric warming near the pole. Thus the "thaw" period should be reserved for later in December and into January, as the warm ENSO forcing decays and Pacific realigns in advance of any impact of the SSW on the polar domain. The excited MJO will also be entering into milder phases at this time. The potential for more sustained high latitude blocking should then being to increase during the second half of January, approximately three weeks after the peak of any polar vortex disruption on or about December 15th. Anticipated Sensible Impacts throughout New England During December The month of December should be both active and variable. A robust PNA should ultimately be the primary driver of the pattern, thus central and northern New England should see the most robust snowfall anomalies. While the PV is likely to encounter some disruptions, it should recover, which may ultimately prove more inimical to the development of early season blocking, which is not climatologically favored, regardless. The erosion of the negative NAO/AO period should be offset by the development of +PNA and -EPO. The NAO should have some increased moduality, and a transient negative phase could link with the PNA to create a major early season storm. Favored period being from 12-5 to 12-19, however the later half of the period is more at greater risk due to Achambault potential in association with SSW induced negative NAO flex. -1 to -2 departures north of Concord, NH, around normal down to 40N, and up to +1 points southward. The deterioration of the +PNA/-EPO Pacific regime in conjunction with limited blocking may forebode any sustained thaw during the latter potion of the month and into the month of January, prior to any sensible impacts of downward propagation of mid December stratospheric warming later in January by way of increased blocking potential.

Hi was 30.4 during a late AM lull....back down to 28.6

My radar app says 430-5 wrap up.

My old and new homsteads may make a run at 20" in this band....this is right where the death band in March 2018 was..93 nailer

Diurnal timing such that we escaped a day of minor melt that the west got.

I can vouch for this....looks like I'm on east edge, but snowing over inch/hr 18.5"

Still ranging here. Mod snow 29.1

Stacking up..gonna break 18" imo

Pretty good, but not done yet.

Wow..pouring snow. Best of rd 2

I mean last night.

That is my guess....perfect eastern ridge to maximize easterly inflow..Jaffrey close second.

Bingo.

This was like the mid level magic event of VD day 2015, just not quite as prolific.

The lesson is to couple model analysis with meterological intellect. We had a huge upper low passing beneath sne, and while guidance occasionally remained east with best forcing right up until go time, we know that that usually verifies a bit west of guidance. We also know that heaviest precip is normally somewhat west of modeled qpf max. Models are much better at resolving low level forcing, but still struggle tremendously with forcing in the mid levels. I'm glad I went big and nailed it. I remember insisting to scooter yesterday that we should get it, however I got so nervous last night that I finally just set the alarm for 4am and crashed. That was almost as good a call as the forecast. Lol

17" total right now and picking up again. 12" from rd 1, 5" round 2

I think that is next major threat...have liked that period bettwr than the current one

Watch for EPO to work in tendem with PNA to continue to deliver...potentially culminating in another biggie mid month with an NAO dip. We likely trend milder late month

I was in a relarive hole for round 2, but can complain about total result

Looks occluded

Agree

I'm salivating over those heavy echoes rotating down from Portland, ME