40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I mentioned Jan '69 to you and Scott via text this wknd ha. RNA, baby.
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This is why I said last month that I would pass on the SSW. If it doesn't evolve in a favorable manner, then it can ruin the entire season by bottling cold on the other side of the globe and stagnating the MJO on the worse phases....this also happened in 2019. The spontaneous ejaculations of winter enthusiasts at the mere mention of this poorly understood phenomenon needs to stop.
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Frankly, I don't even care to read through this, but that fact that you are agreeing with him is good enough for me. I'll defer to the fact that he is mathematically correct, but it has been a rare climatological feat over the past century or so. That is good enough for me. I'm not saying to base an outlook on that, but if there is no overwhelming signal, then it would tip the scale for me.
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Last week of January and potentially first week of Feb for decent (not expecting a real big dog) snows...after that, all bets are off, as it may be getting hostile.
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Yea, hard sell on that.
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EPS looks decent for the 26th, albeit still a bit suppressed. I really like the last week of January post 1/25, after the pattern peaks, for several inches of snow. Both 1/26 and especially 1/29 viable threats. Sell this week-
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I'm sorry, but you're wrong. There is a reason we average what we do.....odds are against sub par seasons several years in a row. Fact, not opinion.
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I hope that continues....no storms, I have no use for bitter cold.
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Yes, and your uncle can sprout a vag, but odds are against it without surgical assist.
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More quiet times ahead for at least the next week, I fear, as an active N branch continues to be inhibited by the lower heights out west. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/active-northern-stream-pattern.html
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I only have one stretch of four consecutive below avg snowfall seasons on record, so call it whatever the hell you want.
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It's a frustrating catch 22....we need the N stream energy to phase w the Pac energy, but the N stream can't dig enough to hit us bc of all the energy out west. Yea, can do it with all N stream, but it still needs to dig...otherwise we just see that strange cat in New Foundland making more nude youtube videos.
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Personally, if the N stream can't dig, I'd just assume recover the PV and be done with it. I don't think anyone yearns for Jan 2004 with bare ground. Pack it up, and take my chances next season after four consecutive years with below avg snowfall. I like my odds next year in that case, statistically speaking.
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My Winter Outlook 2020-21
40/70 Benchmark replied to Isotherm's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Although I feel like we have seen stretches of +NAM last longer than 3 months often the past several years. -
My Winter Outlook 2020-21
40/70 Benchmark replied to Isotherm's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Oh, agreed. Question is do we steal a week or two in early Feb...I think maybe a week. -
I think the threat near the end of the month has the best shot to dig because heights in the west begin to elevate a bit.
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Yea, don't sleep on anything several days out in this pattern....but I doubt it. Def. not an unreasonable position to imply it bares watching for a light event.
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I think the ceiling is very high, but the floor is far more likely. At the moment, I lean towards a whiff, or light to moderate event......but yes. The threat is very viable, but we need a break...and in this N stream dominant pattern, you may not know that the break is coming until you see the whites of its eyes....like 72-84 hours out.
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This incoming pattern seems to me as though the N stream just can not dig quite enough due to the RNA out west. The result is that everything phases and congeals to our NE. Best bet is probably either hoping for a brief PNA nod timed well with the passage of N steam wave, or waiting until the pattern begins to break down nearer the end of the month. The latter seems more likely.
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I still fell like we will get a moderate event before month's end, but am not confident.
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I did not. All I ever said was 1/22ish was the first bonafide threat....I never guaranteed anything. Many bonafide threats fail to produce.
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I know.
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I see nothing through at least 1/26.
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I think he is such trying to present all of the data in order to refute the notion that he's biased. It's up in the air (no pun intended) with the ultimate impact will be.
