40/70 Benchmark

Obviously when I say anafrontal is a "fraud five" member, I do not mean that the phenomenon is not real...as @Typhoon Tip pointed out....it is. The "Fraud Five" simply refers to weather phenomena that are usually not something to "hang your hat on", so to speak....at least in our area. IOW, inherently low probability scenarios, but they can and do work out once every 3.5 blue moons, or so.

I don't think it will take until March. February should be fine.

Mark, I think Corey said he will be around... we should meet up pre xmas. I'm sure a few more would make it. If its only a few of us, we can be more picky about locale .. .

I'm almost halfway to last year's total lol

+1"...done. 20"

Non winter month? Why? No way...

1" new today.

GEFS were also consistent with showing a SSW. Way different than the EPS and euro. Possible, but the timing needs to change....if the high escapes like that, coast will flip to rain.

In the absence of the -NAO pulse, we are at the mercy of timing, and it is not looking good for mid month. There is still time, but right now the looks of the high over the atlantic does not engender much confidence. That high would have been pinned to our north had the SSW succeeded and excited phase 8 of MJO, but as is, no bueno. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/12/confidence-waning-for-mid-month-winter.html

Flurries here.. 32.9

Anafront is not only a fraud five member, its the president.

My position in the outlook was that there would be only minor disruptions in Dec, and the pv would be resilient....a SSW in January would fit with my theme of second half blocking. However if the SSW had succeeded in mid Dec, I feel we would have had a big NAO dip, transient as it may be... December going as planned with an active, variable pattern and any NAO transient. Should be PAC driven. Second half NAO driven with less Pacifc.

Chicken or egg, I guess...as my understanding was that the SSW amplified the MJO, not that the amplified MJO induced the SSW...but like I said, frontier concept and I'm all ears...

Its debatable because I feel as though that is still poorly understood, but just going by what I have read.

Scott, there was support for a SSW....moreso probably from GFS. But again, no issue with it ultimately not succeeding...

Truth is probably in the middle.

I explained in my blog that the immediate NAO pulse would be from MJO excitement, NOT instantaneous downward propagation, which of course is an absurd concept.

You are right, there is no immediate response with respect to the coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere, which takes a good 3 weeks to a month for propagation and such. However as referenced in my blog, there is a tendency for a successful SSW to excite the MJO response, which I was tentatively progged at extended leads to be in phase 7 or 8 come mid December. Last season, the MJO was entering a la nina like phase at the time of the SSW, which accentuated deconstructive interference of an el Nino that had already been struggling to couple with the atmosphere. This also created an environment even more hostile to blocking during the subsequent recovery of the PV. Anyway, I will not be suprised to see it fail because I only expected minor attacks on the PV early this season, from which it will be able to recover. However some guidance suggested that a SSW would indeed take place a week or two back.

Yea, I wouldn't worry at this point.....if anything, it probably also increases the likelihood that this transitions to more of a miller b look.

Yea, threat is there, but doesn't have to work out...not looking like the SSW is going to succeed, which is why NAO pulse is absent. It can still work out, but confidence sinks a bit.

06-07 was my first, too.

That goes along with my idea for winter nicely....PNA driven December, but more RNA and blocking reliant, thereafter...consistent EPO, variable arctic.

Zero interest.

Right now it does, but we'll see . ....don't be surprised to see a trend north into a miller b evolution.

Yea, no hiatus, but there willl be mild interludes....variable.