40/70 Benchmark

I disagree. The shear anomalies of the warmth was more inspiring IMHO....we also had the October snow bomb, even though I got porked. I would take that season over an eternity of 39 P Sunny.

If that were to happen by that point in early Feb, I would welcome the evisceration of the blocking and just torch it. I'm not sure who wouldn't, by that point.

Two more big whiffs, and then a cutter to ring in February.

This is honestly the most boring winter of my life in terms of sensible weather at the surface. I realize how enthralling its been at 60,000 feet above the arctic, but I can not recall a winter with such benign sensible appeal over such a protracted period of time. Sure, there have been winters that have been warmer with even less snowfall, but they are inherently notable because of said anomalies. I think there have been about 3-4 days out of the past 5 weeks that seen high temps outside of the lower 30s to lower 40s climo bracket. Just exotically and utterly unremarkable in every aspect.

Probably in May, when it pounds 3"/hr, but doesn't accumulate due to the sun angle.

Congrats.

We're just going to have to agree to disagree. I live north of Boston and have a jackpot fetish, so its not like I was have a vested interest in claiming that the s shore was slightly better off in the most prolific snowfall period in SNE history.

They have been showing that.

May very well be the case.

Links don't work, but I know for a fact max depths of near 4'+ were on the south shore.

Disagree. Prove it.

Boston had normal snow, but I don't know how sharp of a gradient there was to the north. I'm just tired of people raving over a phenomenon that hoards the cold on the other side of the globe 7/10 times.

They key is how does it evolve...does the main vortex go into Canada? If it goes to Eurasia again, then I'd rather not even.

I saw something on the internet comparing this SSW to 1928-1929 season....not sure about ENSO, but Boston had about normal snowfall, which fits with my forecast. Anyone know ENSO that year?

That is the only one that I know of, and is actually a decent analog.

Right...."at least"...

I can't believe how unknowledgeable and lackadaisical he is about routine ENSO climo. I asked him to name all of the mod la nina events that had a BIG February or March in the Boston area... ."2018, I am sure there are plenty more". 2018 was clearly weak....if there are plenty, list away..... "2011 was a great season, and 2001 had a big March storm" 2011 had a big JANUARY, and then quieted down. 2001 was clearly weak (links CPC historical ONI data) "1996 was a very busy season, I'm sure there are many more" 1996 was clearly weak "(apparently goes to bed)".

Yea, even here....I'm convinced that at least one will whiff...maybe like a pike south deal, which is a whiff for me.

He knows people are getting annoyed "Maybe I am alone but I remain intrigued by yet more predicted disruptions to the #PolarVortex." This guy is going to be rambling about splitting daughters and cold air pooling just 20 days away, from a remote nursing him in July.

All guidance is pretty suppressed with everything, right now...

Its like the folks from Gulfport, MS being interviewed post Katrina...."eh, just a little beach erosion".

Everyone knows my stance on these meteorological unicorns, but all three major ensemble clusters look as though they are trying to signal some type of norlun/inverted trough like feature over eastern MA extending from that 1/26 graze job.

Been a few years, but to my knowledge, male pattern baldness usually doesn't reverse course without some aggressive intervention. I guess we can surmise what took place if we see head a full of curly cues on your grape once we all gtg after the pandemic.

March has always been a wild card in my mind....my composite had tremendous March blocking, but I wussed out in the narrative partly because of both the magnitude of la nina/QBO, and the recent propensity for blocking to wait until spring to (re)emerge.

One thing I have noticed about SSW is that they tend to stagnate the MJO in whatever phases it was in at the onset....this is what ruined 2018-2019, and made that season look like a la nina during what should have been a prime time of a prolific, weak, modoki el nino season. That has also happened this season with the first SSW, however, I think the MJO is finally staggering into more favorable phases should this SSW succeed.