I think its also an issue of time allocation....I'm willing to bet that many hobbyists who gloss over light snow events do so because they aren't yet retired and have a family.
Been 1-3" with spot 4" since the get-go...no change. Fraud refers to the tendency to underperform expectations....doesn't mean P sunny skies. Pretty simple.
He knows that.
If I were hugging the NAM, then I would have been forecasting several inches in the first call. The 18z NAM is a mere illustration of the instability and unreliability of that particular piece of guidance. I think that is the point. I already agreed that the 18z maybe overtrended...still think general 1-3".
I would not doubt another biggie...the first one was a smidge ahead of my pre season 12-5 to 12-19 window, but the door remains ajar, mild intervals not withstanding. The month was supposed to be variable, yet active imo-