40/70 Benchmark

I would take the GFS lol

He lies lol

Ball busting aside, I have always valued your OBS as much as anyone....top tier. I think you're pretty meticulous and objective, but I can see why those you haven't been around as long would suspect otherwise lol

That was also back in my WOTY days lol

Doesn't have that "always in the right spot" ambiance, either...great spot, but ORH does better in upslope bc its a chain of hills. Much better SWFE climo, too.

He's probably been writing it ever since.

Honestly, Dec 1992 is when I really noticed it....I remember thinking, "wow, if ORH already has 12", then Springfield must have like 20"!.....further NW is always more snow. But that storm is when I started to understand the topographical nuances and just how magical that spot is.

Look back through history....always just far enough in one direction....very seldom do they miss out on the lion's share of snowfall. I honestly take that into consideration when making snowfall maps.

One thing that you can take to the bank is that ORH will be just far enough NE to catch that OMEGA.

Shades of 2010 lol

Hopefully I can get into kind of a sweet spot, where I can get the dying lift from the initial surge to the west, then catch the INVT snows...

GEFS looked excellent...hair inside BM. EPS was okay, but I would like to see that come NW a bit....well outside of the BM. SE trend. GEPS were pretty bad...se of EPS.

I'm fine with it....for obvious reasons, I am done gambling on precip and suppression, and am ready to take my chances otherwise.

Hopefully my latitude finally pays some dividends. I know its not much of a difference from Wilmington, but you would be shocked at how often mother nature has managed to shove that extra 10-12 mi of latitude up my rear, since I moved here.

Well, you said Greenland ridge and -EPO....so that is neg NAO and neg EPO, which is why I was wondering why you were ambivalent.... I agree.....neg NAO is game changer....that goes, and you have my forecast Feb, which is no fun. Just a hunch, but I still feel like we would steal some decent snow, though.

Yea, I will gamble with this. If we get a big February, I think your Jan 2011 call still has merit. It is beyond difficult to accurately predict a pattern several months out, never mind the precise timing of it....then to have it result in the literal forecast sensible appeal, as far as snowfall amounts.....heh, yeesh.

I just mean for most of SNE....yea, should be some mixing well south.

Remember the trend all season, which is typical of mod strong la nina....guidance tries to model a very big east coast storm, only to have it trend more moderately within the final 72-96 hours, as models are more able to aptly resolve the inherent difficulty of achieving a proficient phase with a fast-flow, mod la nina regime. We just saw this happen to the mid atl (it is phasing, but later)....better shot with latitude, but still going to be tough. Nothing wrong with that....we would all take a 6-8" snowfall about now, but just acknowledging this. I think the realistic ceiling here will end up like 6-10", maybe 8-14" type deal....big dump, but nothing anyone, apart from Will, is going to recall five years from now.

Sell.

Completely reasonable....good over/under.

What is wrong with that? Do you mean its just a finger ridge, and not a bonafide block?

It would be a first for me....perhaps Will can rattle one off. This does look like about as a good a shot as you will see, though. Remember....I am still expecting greater than 30" of snow IMBY, so I'm not exactly saying that winter is over, either....I just think you are going to have a hard time landing a truly big fish.

Yea, I understand. I mentioned that I was just commenting on the runs

Some relatively underwhelming dynamics on some of these runs with the H5 low kind of sloppy....that's why its taking like 30 hrs to get 14" of snow. Obviously meaningless at this point, but something to watch for. People have this slow mover, duration fetish, but 9/10 times its dynamics that drive of excessive snows...not duration. Usually like half of the 30 hours is nuisance variety....its all about how intense the dynamics are in they prime window of time, which is seldom linger than about 12 hours. Its gets very banded after that.