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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't think this winter is going to be a complete no-show again. Pretty confident in modestly better Pacific relative to last year providing some decent chances.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    What are your thoughts...similar, warmer, better?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ended up going +3 to +5 in Dec for the mid Atl and NE...hopefully I don't end up too cool....the potential translation of the MJO into phase 6 beyond mid month and towards the holiday is what kept me from really going bonkers.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Generally agree, but think more WPO.
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  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think around 12/16 could begin a window, but just leery of can-kicking.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Regardless of what La Niña does, I agree on that this year.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, all I care about is the peak ONI value, anyway.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, its very precarious...I agree. Toughest ENSO call in the 11 years I have been at this.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The issue I see is the trades are west, while the subsurface is east.....gonna need them to overlap a bit on the western periphery of 3.4.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Subsurface is neutral over the western half, which means it won't go Modoki....-1 to -2C over the eastern half.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Careful with the PDO....it's as much of a reflection of the past regime as it is a predictor of the future....ie the momentum is just as important. If begins climbing rather abruptly....
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...I wouldn't say that yet. 2008 is a great ENSO analog and it racked up ONI by hanging out near peak for a relatively long duration, rather than reaching a low weekly. It was -0.1 at this point on the weekly and peaked at 0.8 ONI.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It could be an overlap...I know we like to distinguish using human constructs of arbitraty 30 days periods, but every now and then mother nature likes to moon us for doing so.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't mean this to be an ass, either...I would get it if there were resistance, but there really isn't. Like last year, I totally got it....but we are all generally on the same page here, so I think honing in on the magnitude, characterization, timing and length of any potential deviations would have more value at this stage.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right on par with 2021.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I really don't see the value in posting volumes of support for a warm winter at this point....I mean, while you're at it, maybe dig up some tweets from scientists arguing that the world is round? I think at this point of the season, there is more value in thinking outside of the box and envisioning what, if anything could go "wrong" from a consensus perspective.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone know what the final SAI/SCE were?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    50mb, too....odd.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone know why this says eastern phase? Could have sworn QBO is west...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remember that heat...I was a junior in HS.
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