40/70 Benchmark

I'm not even doing First Call until tomorrow...venting online is one thing...

Hearing Ukie sends near major into central LI

I'd put more money on your fantasy team, than I would this system having a huge impact.

At least it has the entire hurricane model suite to keep it company.

Hopefully that is far enough east to spare me several inches of rain.

But the EURO initialized too weak yesterday...it has to hit.

Any time you start watching for that, its over.

Agree.

This page has it, but for some reason, the forecast maps are from February right now...I used it last season. https://www.trackthetropics.com/atlantic-wind-shear-maps/

It can act an an outflow channel...I think that is what scooter is alluding to.

I think later tomorrow, then later tomorrow night and Saturday is favorable.

I get why the EURO yesterday was giving people pause...it wasn't even showing a storm, or a very faint representation of one....but this "it initialized at 1001mb and its already 991mb" is asinine.

I am...I don't want 12" of rain. Honest truth.

Hopefully I can continue last winter's karma and have the latitude "screw" me...

Yea, I hope it stalls down there....my basement has had enough issues this summer.

I'm not sure you are being entirely honest with us....lol

Leave it to Ant to run models on his old Atari to find a NYC track.

I'm starting to hedge towards a a more western track that bends towards the cape late in the game and decelerates before drifting away.....would devastate cape cpd.

Erosion would be the least of your concerns in some of these solutions.

My gut is saying this is bad news for the cape, and a large nuisance, elsewhere.

It seems to be losing a bit more latitude than forecast....

Its probably mainly a higher impact for the cape if anyone in the end, and super soaker period for us.

Consider the impact of a system that grinds to a halt POST landfall...worst case.

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude. Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call...I am conflicted.