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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is exactly the window that I mentioned to kick things off in the outlook. All you need is the cold in Canada...I would be surprised if at least a couple of them do not work out over the course of the next 2-3 weeks.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Neither is east...its been a central season in the early going. I expect to begin making up ground rather shortly...I think it's a good pattern for my area.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure Steve will be all over it.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect a similar outcome here.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was thinking the same thing.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a page right out of the Dec 2007 playbook.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can tell you that it was low level temps IMBY....may have been overcome due to greater evap cooling had lift been in SGZ, and we had better dendrites, but that was not the case......so we rotted between 33.8 and 34.0 during bulk of heavy precip.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly...and as I said to John, it was struggling to accumulate all afternoon in that area.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly my point....even before the precip abated, I was not accumulating efficiently.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was both.....sure, precip cutoff early in the evening, but it had been accumulating like shit all afternoon, despite heavy fall rates.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....hence the "backlash" member of the fraud five. Bruce Showegler never did manage to wrap his mind around this over the course of a very esteemed 33 year career as an OCM.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my take is that the lift being JUST below the SGZ was fatal given how marginal the low level thermal envt. was.....we needed optimal dendrite production in order to offset that and we did not get it. The heavy fall rates in and of themselves were not enough...we also needed perfect growth.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was east-based....its becoming central at this point. Agreed.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hi Dave, glad to see you back. The SSW still seems like mostly conjecture at a this point, and I think relying on a dramatic weakening of ENSO as the primary driver for a big second half is always risky...especially in a la nina, which usually do not have big endings in the east.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense to me. I had Philly in the 11-21" range this season.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously...I just mean that it will melt slowly relative to your average 2" snow pack.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    What we know is the odds of a whiff are pretty low with a pattern like this, so its all about having enough cold in the bank, which we should. This doesn't mean that it will be pretty, and it may involve some advisory 2-5" stuff to ice and rain, but its still snow.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't do well Saturday, but it was apparent that I did better than Boston. There are only patches in the Everett/Chelsea area. I have fill coverage at home in Methuen.....and that 2" of concrete will not cede ground easily.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that doesn't look abysmal to me. I didn't expect December 1998 of December 1999 before the season, nor do I now.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anafrontal snow, Inverted trough snows, backlash, SNE severe weather and big wind events in the Merrimack valley. Obviously there are times when these do in fact work out, but more often than not, they end up an artifact of modeling.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The very same models that are now implying a warm December were emphatically signalling otherwise a mere several days ago....and this was before they were all very warm previously before that. Unstable to say the least. This is not about "accepting" anything, at least with me...I am anticipating a mild winter with slightly below average snowfall, however, I do feel as though December will be more wintry than guidance currently suggests.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it means anything for winter, given the lag that exists between ENSO and the atmosphere.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    +2". 4" on the season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Guidance is going to waffle...that is what guidance does. Just gotta trust your gut and preseason work...and both tell me we do okay this month. Maybe I will be wrong...it happened alot the past couple of years. We'll see.
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