I've always been skeptical because 40" December snowfall is unprecedented here....we probably won't get the bomb, warm up for xmas and limp into January....even so, I will be pretty near Dec 1995 for snowfall, so..
Irony is that I am not advocating for a jackpot here....anyone with a clue knows that the JP will be with the mid level banding, which is actually over me in his southern solution.
The initial vorticity and mid level circulation is well west. The high doesn't change that. The high can add some resistance in the mid levels, yes, but the most prominent impact is to enhance ageostrphic drain at the surface.
It wasn't even that...it was just bad forecasting. I had a preconceived notion and didn't use soundings to see that that case was an exception. Learned alot from people like you on that.