40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I don't buy the PV split, or displacement...I think we keep seeing enough perturbations for fun, and then it eventually starts to recover next month. Not like last year, but it should strengthen eventually.

I don't think this is a set up where you would whiff, since we have some NAO to slow things down a tad...probably just won't JP...but lets get the storm within a week first.

I'd be shocked if we end up below average snowfall this month.

Its a nice December pattern with a good arctic/atlantic, and a subpar Pac....precisely AWT.

EPS is all that matters.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/12/december-largely-on-track-with-active.html

I was just thinking that...if we had stronger blocking, it could look like Jan 2011, or Feb 1969. There is a reason months like that are rare.

Remember...very low reality content. Get the broom ready.

I think its reasonable that spots like you may retain some snow...more likely in Mass hills that received 6"+, but you could. Even cold rain is doable...as long as its below like 37.

Exactly. Should some fun next week, anyway.

I think it will be tough for areas as far south and west as you because the air mass is just bleeding in as the storm arrives.

Yea, blogging right now and harping on antecedent airmass..AGAIN. Should be last time for a while.

12/17 looks as though it may attenuate somewhat on approach, but too early to worry about that....OP looks pure s stream, ENS more of a hybrid born of some split flow.

You beat Saturday.

Correct.

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of mass flux, which is to stay that the pattern looks to be relatively stagnant with not a great deal of shifting of air masses and pressure patterns in the longer range. This implies that one should expect storms of moderate intensity for the most part...I think the path way to a larger ticket QPF event would be more of the overrunning variety, as the potential for any bombogenesis, or anything of that nature is below climo IMHO...at least at this latitude. I think for the huge overrunning, you would want some true arctic air, and looks to me to be more seasonal cold.

Frankly, at this moment, my primary concern is for a colder and snowier second half than I had envisioned. I am not that concerned about the call for an active December with seasonal to slightly above avg temps.

This why I advise folks who are very invested to go into each season with a conceptualization of how you anticipate the season to evolve; obviously this will not always be correct, but it helps to ground expectations and guard against the fostering of short shortsightedness by unstable guidance.

We had a system like that in January 2019. Yea, I was assuming that the air mass was in place. Man, if had that high on Saturday, then we'd still be digging out and the month would already be in the books as above climo snowfall.

That high is perfectly placed. If that ensemble is correct....we're not seeing a straight rain within 10 miles of the ocean, at least not without hell to pay first. I don't care where it tracks.

Yea, that 5" ice storm is akin to one of those provisional 2' inverted trough scenarios, while the model engineers a means to break the news to you that the weather ain't gonna do shit.

MPV FTW

I think being careful may be the course of least regret.