I was writing up my seasonal bible last fall knowing full well folks would be bailing when the PAC went to $hit around the holidays...especially on the heels of last year.
Funny-
I think you may be near southern edge of big ice....we may see things tic north, but the low level cold push is also probably being undermodeled. These factors may negate one another?
This is what I was just explaining to pickles...yes, antecedent airmass is a limiting factor, but we are advecting in a colder airmass and with more ease the father north and east one is.
I'm really going to get worried if we see the Schwarz shuffle north on the 12z suite...may scramble for a generator this wknd. Still hopeful for a savage sleeting right now.