40/70 Benchmark

Shifting of the goal posts....

24 hours...okay. Post the support for 48 hours of mod to heavy snow...that should be widespread 24"+ relatively evenly distributed over the course of 2 days.

I think there is a decent chance of this getting near the cape....

Discuss away the hypothetical plausibility of something that is exceedingly rare in coastal storms, and is supported by no guidance.

Its bad....even the weenie Weatherbell maps give Boston 1.7", with 4" out to 495. I can confidently say that isn't happening with that track.

Look like its getting captured off of NJ, right now....plenty of time to trend that a little further out towards the cape.

Right, but when we are getting to active times there are more novice posters around who will take it seriously...not a big deal for us, but...

Yes he is. Even assuming that model is right....the second interval of 24 hours is several inches in the hardest hit areas....that is not S-S+

Its too warm. No way I get like 2" of snow with that antecdent airmass in early Feb.

And.....?

Not a good run for E MA, but I think its too warm with that antecedent airmass.

Bit closer to ACK and weaker.

Tuesday night-

I'm surprised that you of all people took the bait lol

Huh?

He breaks out into hives anytime the heights at Miami exceed 580dm.

I agree, John...those 36-48 hr depictions never work out. The bulk of this impact should be within a 24 hr period, and anything beyond is nuisance variety.

That may take bit longer and flip your outtie to an innie, first.

Looks like 3" at home and 4" at work, here in Chelsea.

Man, the OP GEM would send Scooter to the old S Weymouth Naval station to sprawl across the runway lol....brutal gradient near Boston.

EPS is a bit too tucked for my liking... GEFS are perfect. GEPS are a bit too far east... I like where much of the region sits, right now....even a 75% comp in favor of the EPS would be near optimal.

Just my early guess...really shouldn't even be discussing aspects like that yet, so take it FWIW.

I suspect that at least from the ORH hills points east, this may not be as prone to mesoscale screw jobs as some other events due to that deep layer E fetch....you aren't so dependent on low level fronto near the coast, and mid level deformation as the primary vehicles for ascent. I can envision a scenario where everyone that isn't rain is naked from ORH down to Kev points east, and then anyone who is not under the death band and/or in a valley is in a great deal of pain points west. Higher stakes over WNE and NYS IMO.

Yea, I haven't even looked.