40/70 Benchmark

CFS actually isn't warm here...must be decent reservoir of cold to the north by that point.

Congrats

The GFS has been the best model this fall.

The one about Idaho is true...that is the optimal ridge position on average.

Yea, I am still pretty confident that December will not suck...at the very least in New England, anyway.

Yea, I am not optimistic.

You will be good to go this year.

If we get to Wednesday and it looks good, then I will need to push the subscribe button....otherwise, I am holding firm to 12/1.

Looks great at H5! Famous last words...

I think we've had a surface nap all month long, despite some H5 excitement from time to time.

Its fine...if its still like this in a month, then worry.

This is true, but I am far enough from the ocean that I will take the tradeoff for the increased baroclinicity.

I do not get that sense at all. Most people are concerned about the stubborn lower heights INVOF AK and are well aware that every winter since 2014-2015 has been warmer than average. Hell, all we hear about is global warming... I disagree.

I'm not sure the highs will be much warmer than that...haven't looked. But I'm guessing it may be the lows that make this period warmer.

Who?? There is plenty of concern over that.

I honestly think the odds for a decent event on the actual holiday are well above climo this season...same way I felt in 2017.

Ha, take a look at the first 10 days of 12/95: Climatological Data for BOSTON, MA - December 1995 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1995-12-01 47 28 37.5 -2.3 27 0 0.10 0.3 3 1995-12-02 46 27 36.5 -3.0 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 1995-12-03 47 25 36.0 -3.2 29 0 0.07 0.0 0 1995-12-04 50 37 43.5 4.6 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1995-12-05 40 30 35.0 -3.7 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 1995-12-06 46 34 40.0 1.6 25 0 0.10 0.0 0 1995-12-07 39 29 34.0 -4.1 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 1995-12-08 33 22 27.5 -10.3 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 1995-12-09 48 21 34.5 -3.0 30 0 0.69 2.2 0 1995-12-10 37 20 28.5 -8.7 36 0 T 0.0 0

Strongly doubt a grincher this year.

Lets bump this. I still say white xmas for most of New England.

Big revelation.

I would take that look in a heartbeat. Good look for my area. That is about the timing of when 12/08 started up. Second week of the month.

Yea, that looks good. I think we will see some NAO later in the month, too.

Its pretty bad.