40/70 Benchmark

Here...pick your station: http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KLWM&model=nam&time=current&field=prec

I am normally loath to forecast a large quantity of sleet because it seldom works out, but I think this is a case where it may....I think the only comp. that I can recall for over an inch worth of sleet is VD Day 2007....again, not implying 30" of snow in VT and NYS...

I know....great post/info; I was just "clowning" around....I got jokes.

Only difference for MBY maybe a hair less plain rain, since the marine influence often stops a few miles beyond KLWM.

6-12".

Ha...no snow or frz rain here on the NAM...mainly IP with a bit of rain, presumably late Monday night into Tuesday. I buy it.

Agree.

I'm going to post about January hopefully tonight, but def. by the new year....will review seasonal thoughts for January and do post analysis of verification vs thoughts for December. Foot note version is that December has gone pretty much exactly as planned, save for the big PNA not really working out, but we scored anyway. The cold, active storm track and variable NAO did verify, and the cold departures that were focused on the first half of the month were negated to such a degree by the mild second half that we should end up a hair below for the month in the aggregate. This was all according to plan, as the PAC was supposed to go into the toilet and it has.

That is what I am rooting for...give me 3-4" of sleet that will pad the stats, melt slowly and keep my power.

Wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last.

Yea, just give me an ice-clown map...thanks lol

We've already had more breaks than last year...remember that we whiffed on the early December 2018 window. Many got nailed in early December 2019, though I know not everyone. Most of sne, anyway is at least going better than a year ago.

Last season was the inverse of 2014-2015....I'd expect more breaks this year relative to last year, and hopefully a bit more blocking. We don't necessarily need a March 2018, either...

....but the risk is much greater when the PNA is negative and the NAO is positive. That is his point.

Started obs thread. Yea, this is NBD unless you are in the big ice zone out west.

Post those dews if you got 'em, as we track the press... 26.8/23.9

Sounds like last season with the EPO dumping west and storms encountering zero resistance to cutting.

Dp 23.4 here...

EURO looks a hair colder than 18z, but warmer than 12z...in between.

@Damage In Tolland Shouldn't you be in bed? Morning run in like an hour...

Yea, I'll sell a cold/dry January.

We did....blizz of '78.

One thing you well never see me do is post them on my blog or social media, but in a chat forum? Sure...

Yea, I don't get the aversion to clown maps in a weather forum. If you don't know their limitations by now then its on you.

Nowcast should be a blast.