40/70 Benchmark

My snow cover was one week. The month has been fine...nothing that will stand out in my memory, aside from a clinic in how to NOT run an NAO.

I mentioned this yeserday....that is the smoking gun for how the SSW politics can still claim victory without you getting your snow.

Wait....Laconia, NH is well over snowfall climo? That settles it...its been a great month.

May as well be 80, at this point.

December worked out okay, except for the fact that it was PNA and not RNA....this caused the se and se to flip anomalies from what was forecast. Most of the forecast for January still appears valid...trends for less "blocking" and perhaps more PNA intervals again as the month progresses. The lower heights towards AK have already began materializing, but the N ATL ridding has not yet began to abate. I would look for signs of that in longer range guidance as the New Year approaches. January 2021 Outlook January Forecast H5 Composite: The active winter pattern may carry over into the first week or so of January, or it may not. This is nebulous, but what is clear is that any residual positive height anomalies should vacate the higher latitudes, as lower heights retrograde towards Alaska. The structure and character of la nina begins to assume a more modoki state, as it peaks and begins to decay. The Aleutian ridge relocates to the southeast, away from Alaska. Heights near the pole should not be exceeding low, nor the temperature departures extremely high like January 20202. But nevertheless, the pattern grows relatively hostile to sustained wintery interludes in the east. January Forecast Temperature Composite: Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes. January Forecast Precipitation Composite: A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.

Another damaging wind? Where is all of today's damage? Aside from the snowpack, which is the only damage I have seen.

Well, I think that is what you're going to get IMO, so make the best of it. I'm open to anything since everything has porked me.

Good news is that it should die out over the next month. Give me la nina gradient over this shit.

I follow him on Twitter... he is around.

I was more hopeful then.

I'm not even saying winter is over, January should be okay. But this epic pattern looks tenuous, and I don't want to hear the "SSW will shake things up" BS.

I just see a dangerous trend appearing now that the blocking has set up in the wrong spot and the cutters are raining down. People have lost all sound, rationale hope in this pattern, so now it's up to the SSW to "shake things up". Big fricking mistake IMO. I think your odds are better if you get rid of the blocking, and just pop an EPO or PNA ridge.

Those SSW events are the biggest politics in seasonal forecasting...if they work out, but it doesn't snow...then there is a perfectly valid scientific reason why the PV went to the other side of the globe. Everybody wins..if they don't work out, just make some BS up and toss the word propagate in the explanation and you're golden.

Look for the nearest paper bag and begin breathing into it.

Exactly. Enjoy the holidays and be merry.

Yea, sell hard on the 60-65 here.

I just mean for the next week to ten days....I've seen enough to not care to join @MJO812 in hoping for miracles.

Give me Dec 2007 over this crap, any year. Take your blocks and shove 'em.

Yea, I've checked out FTFF.

We're fine...all fairly mild cases.

First week I've missed since honeymoon in July 2018. One week doesn't cost me anything.

I had just over 30" in March 2018.

Fever is gone, but I'll lay off this week. Thanks for the advice.