The peak of the impact on the NAO is 2-4 years post max, so its entitely conceivable we get a decent bout or two of blocking this year. That said, it will average positive, of course.
Very reasonable look IMO. I don't expect a KU pipeline to become eestablished, but nor do I think it will be a prhibitvely warm bloodbath. Could be a pretty good latitudinal gradient around SNE/CNE.