40/70 Benchmark

I hear that. I see what you guys are saying. I def. have as good a shot as anyone, right now...maybe better a tad west of me.

Agreed. I think I have just been tracking this too long.

I understood that, but what I was confused about was why there was a level of uncertainty implied as to where subsidence would set up should said scenario materialize. I was breaking his balls over it, but its seemed pretty clear for at least a couple of days. Maybe he meant uncertainty with respect to the fact that subsidence could be elsewhere, IF the the forcing doesn't chase the convection. I've been saying all along that the coast would have heavy precip owed to low level fronto w coastal front, and mid level goodies west...subby in my area.

I agree. Best hope is for a sink back se to get the decaying deformation.

We can also root for a continued north trend.

That is why I was asking @dryslot about the proximity...don't think its close enough, though.

Tiny bit....like .5"

Its going to be about 7-9" of sand in this area, a foot plus of power threatening paste near the coast, and 12-18" of fluff west.

Yea, this is going to be a Boxing day. At least I'm prepared for it, this time.

Is that too far to phase? Not looking at model...

What a mess.

Aren't you buying into it by giving southern areas less?

Right....I was on the eastern edge of it in Wilmington with about 12", too.

I was just about to reply to Chris that we saw ORH county hosed in Boxing day...also wonder if its kind of a gap as the dynamics jump east.

He was doing a Kevin just then....it was clear what you said. He wanted to ask, without asking.

That will do...shoved subbie to Dave

Welcome to my life the past few days, while you and your CT and NY montage keep telling how great it looked for most of SNE, only to see like 2" near the NH border lol

Yea, with 925 to 850 so cold, he wnt rain...may just lose power

I may have to shit can the 6 hour swipe this storm to elude the wrath of Will and Scott

Yea.

I expect that...just a matter of how much. I'd like about 50 miles.

I can totally see a situation where I don't...I'm just saying there is no denying that its a realistic possibility, as most guidance currently favors it. I also think I'm at greater risk of it due to coastal low level fronto. However, like where I sit because should the messenger (RIP) shuffle kick in, I stand to cash in on mid levels.

Only when he wears his pink tie

He knows I'm just bustn' 'em.