I would not at all be suprised if the NAO is overdone later in January....we need to watch for that. I actually think the PAC should start to improve, though.
All he means is there isn't any arctic air around to enhance deformation and lift....maybe relatively underwhelming cyclogen.....the value of arctic air extends beyond simple thermals ie precip type.
We aren't getting a 2 foot capture....but if you reconcile that reality with the subtle, yet obvious trend tonight on the euro then more power to you.
I stand by a warning event for a good part of the region.