40/70 Benchmark

Like you said, not quite perfectly....ended up a bit more snow than I forecast, and the Pacific drove the bus, but it was a good call all things considered.

There is always the chance of an outlook being great, but one storm missing due to a nuance...those are the breaks. It also happens in sports, and life in general. Those are the breaks that distinguish victory from the jaws of defeat.....all you can do is try to place yourself in the best possible position, and hope to get lucky enough to avail of your work. That happened to me in 2016 with the mid atlantic blizzard....great call and everything from a seasonal level, but because it whiffed New England totally, my seasonal totals were way off up here. Those are the breaks, and you need to understand that....so I'm not sure why the need to endlessly adding that qualifier. We all know this....its implicit. I think in the end, there will definitely be value in the big January calls because I think the NAO is going to come to fruition....I think we will all understand the value of the contributions of those like Cosgrove and Steve, who went big in January. @Isotherm did, too....so some good company there. I had an okay January overall, but was struggling with when the pattern went to crap, which I still think that it will...looks to hold off until Feb, though.

Technically, no, but I came about as close you can get. Read it. I didn't have the technical prowess that I have now, as that was my initial foray into seasonal forecasting, but I explained why I thought that season would turn ferocious after a quiet first half.

Last two seasons have been awful for me, and I am the first to say it. But I sure as hell nailed 2014-2015 and 2017-2018. I will grant you that my totals were a bit low, and I forecast the Atlantic to be the main driver of 2015, but it was the Pacific....that was all detailed in the post analysis.

I did....would you like to see the post? Not quite to that degree, but it was about as descriptive as you can get.

If that is screwed, sign me up. I got "screwed" in March 2018....yes, sir, may I have another.

I was thinking the same thing, but the official large scale map always misses some....all the totals they use need to be verified by Jesus.

I can contain confirmation that it is not happening...I'm not sure what confused you? They are predictable....if it doesn't work out, then those are the breaks. I predicted 2015 and 2018 both....called the Jan 2016 blizzard, too, but problem was I thought it would get NE more than it did. Those are the breaks.

Cat 2 sounds about right.

You know things could be better when storm threads outnumber inches on the month.

That one fails, I'll give it one more before calling fail on the Jan 2011 talk.

Yea, not my type of set up.

I get what he means by the block slipping south a bit. It's not an ideal look for us, but I still see plenty of blocking in the Davis Strait. Strikes me as the type of storm I'd complain about, while posters from CT ostracize me for bitching.

I agree that it's likely to be load blown SW deal.

Yea, not in love with that look. Majority of the region can score a major event, but you can take the SNE upper tier off of the table.

The hemispheric pattern is a little easier to nail down than the nuances of a phase to within 50 mi.

I think the EPS looks "best" right now.....GEPS worst.

You will find a way to pull 2"

Weekend Storm Potential Following Monday's brief episode of inclement weather, medium range ensemble guidance is signaling a storm system to pass out to sea over the weekend, underneath the developing NAO block. However, it does seem close enough to warrant vigilance over the course of the week. It appears as though the day to watch is primarily Saturday. ECMWF Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: Canadian Ensemble Mean:

Frisky old man....

Final Call for a general coating to 2", most favored SW of Boston, hills of N CT/RI, and ORH hills. Berkshires 1-3" Also brief mention of next weekend. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/final-call-for-nuisance-event-monday.html

What I don't like as that all the ensembles are very supressed.

2/16/18...worked last time this was bumped

Yea, to insert its finger in your tailpipe.